Now that we’ve whittled the field to its diverse quartet, let’s re-seed one last time by looking through two lenses. One viewpoint is how they played throughout the regular season, which is basically 90 percent of the resume. But tournament play must also be noted. It makes for a hard decision for Nos. 2 and 3. This is how one humble writer ranks the remaining teams in the 2017 NCAA Tournament.
No reason to move Gonzaga from the top spot, which is exactly where I put it Selection Sunday. It has been the nation’s highest-rated team in advanced-metrics rankings systems for more than a month. Gonzaga also is the odds-on favorite to win at multiple major sports books in Las Vegas. The Bulldogs’ loss total seems to have been forgotten, which is odd. You can count on one hand the number of teams in the past decade to make a Final Four with only one loss. Mark Few’s had some really nice Gonzaga teams, but this one is far and away the best.
Johnathan Williams’ performance in the second weekend was so impressive, it makes Gonzaga the most dangerous team in Phoenix if he continues to play in that style. Nigel Williams-Goss is, in my opinion, the best point guard of the four we’ll get on Saturday. Zach Collins could be poised for a breakout performance against South Carolina because Przemek Karnowski likely will get hounded. But with those two bigs, plus Killian Tillie’s expanding role on the interior, not even UNC can match up inside.
Gonzaga has the top-rated defense, shoots 57.3 percent and has defeated opponents in this tournament by an average of 13.3 points, better than the other three Final Four participants.
WATCH: Final Four Picks
Yes, I’m going with the Ducks, seeded third in the Midwest, over South No. 1 North Carolina. Oregon did get a smidge lucky in beating Rhode Island, then moved past Michigan in the Sweet 16 in part because Derrick Walton Jr. missed a good-look 3. But the way Oregon slashed Kansas -- which had played better than anyone in the tournament -- has stuck with me.
And I believe Oregon is going to beat UNC on Saturday night.
The Ducks block 17 percent of their opponents’ shots, by far the nation’s best and one of the most devastating swat rates in the past decade. Jordan Bell has made himself millions of dollars the past two weeks. Tyler Dorsey is second only to Sindarius Thornwell for tourney MOP to this point. Daggers on top of daggers. Then you have Dillon Brooks, who beat out Lonzo Ball for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Think he’s waiting on his big moment? Yes. And he’ll get it against UNC. Oregon has the experience and athleticism to beat UNC in what should be a terrific game.
PARRISH: Final Four lookahead, predictions
Don’t let anyone tell you this Final Four is weak or underwhelming; UNC slotted third disproves that. The Heels are No. 3 because I would take Gonzaga and Oregon over the Tar Heels in a one-game, neutral setting. In a seven-game series? I actually like how UNC would hold up.
There’s a dichotomy to this Final Four because Gonzaga and South Carolina are making their first trips, while Oregon may as well be doing the same. The Ducks won the first NCAA Tournament in 1939, but haven’t made the semifinals since. Meantime, no program has made more Final Fours than North Carolina. And it would make for a cool culmination if this group were to win the national title one year after falling at the buzzer to Villanova.
UNC has the country’s No. 6 offense, scoring 121.1 points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom. That’s the best team of any in the Final Four. The defense ranks 18th overall. UNC is a killer on the offense boards. I’ve seen this group play, well, probably 20 times this season? It has dominant and lackluster spurts. I do wonder about the health of Joel Berry. That being a question mark, I suppose, is the biggest reason why I just barely dip UNC below Oregon.
That leaves South Carolina in the fourth spot, and no doubt Frank Martin prefers it that way. Ironically, the Gamecocks have the tournament MOP so far. Senior stud Thornwell is the best two-way player in the country at this point. No one works as hard or is asked to do as much at the defensive end, then goes out and drops 20-plus while being guarded by the other team’s top defender.
South Carolina’s defense ranks No. 2. The Gamecocks, along with every other team in the Final Four, have two future NBA players on its roster. The East’s No. 7 seed turns teams over -- by a massive margin -- better than any team in the Final Four. When you swipe away the best 3-point shooting team in the country (Marquette) and wallop Duke (61 second-half points!) in the second round, OK, that’s an all-time memorable run. But then to drop Baylor in a vat of acid and, yet again, have a surge of a second half against a poised Florida team? It’s one of the best things I’ve ever had the privilege to cover.
Frank Martin is why. You’ll want to read up more on his history here. UConn winning the whole thing as a 7 seed only three years ago is evidence that South Carolina can’t be dismissed, and I don’t dismiss S.C. It’s merely the weakest in a diverse quartet.