Inside the bubble debate: CBS Sports writers argue over the final NCAA Tournament at-large bid
CBS Sports' college basketball writers kicked around a hypothetical: If the bracket were set today, which bubble team would deserve the final NCAA Tournament at-large bid?
With a lackluster bubble thinning out entering conference tournament week, the debate over the final at-large spot has become unusually murky. So CBS Sports' college basketball writers kicked around a hypothetical in Slack: If the selection show were today and one final at-large bid was on the line, who gets in?
| Team | Conf | NET | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn (16-15) | SEC | 39 | 4-12 | 4-2 | 4 |
| Boise St. (20-11) | Mountain West | 56 | 2-6 | 6-3 | 22 |
| California (21-10) | ACC | 65 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 85 |
| Indiana (18-13) | Big Ten | 37 | 3-11 | 3-2 | 43 |
| New Mexico (22-9) | Mountain West | 45 | 2-6 | 6-1 | 95 |
| Oklahoma (17-14) | SEC | 55 | 4-9 | 5-5 | 97 |
| Seton Hall (20-11) | Big East | 57 | 1-5 | 6-4 | 70 |
| West Virginia (18-13) | Big 12 | 58 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 78 |
Here's how the conversation unfolded. The real selection will be unveiled Sunday, March 15 at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.
David Cobb (college basketball writer, bracketologist analyst):
You are the chair of the selection committee and you have to choose between the following teams to put in as the final at-large squad for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Who are you picking?
California
Indiana
New Mexico
Auburn
Cameron Salerno (college basketball writer):
Cal.
Auburn has no business in the tournament. New Mexico has missed opportunities and Cal > IU.
But then again, Cal has missed opportunities, too. Does anybody want to be on the right side of the bubble?
David Cobb:
It's so bad right now around that last spot in.
Isaac Trotter (college basketball writer):
Is VCU gonna get back into this thing?
Kind of backdoor its way?
Matt Norlander (senior writer):
VCU is above all those others.
David Cobb:
We have VCU in at the moment as one of the last four teams in, yeah. The Rams are one of the biggest risers of the weekend and have won 14 of the last 15.
Isaac Trotter:
Love it.
Dan Weiner (CBS Sports HQ producer)
Auburn vs. Miami (OH) in Dayton if Akron wins the MAC Tournament.
(Kidding.)
Matt Norlander:
Auburn is toast. No 16-loss team has ever made the tournament, and only like three ever made it two games above .500 -- and that was back when there were fewer games and the win percentage was better than in a 32- or 33-game sample size.
Isaac Trotter:
100% dead.
I think Santa Clara could end up on the 10 line, to be honest.
David Cobb:
In reality, a couple bid thieves (MAC? Mountain West?) will keep this dilemma from being reality. But if there were no bid thieves and the selection show were tomorrow, the last team in would be undeserving in any other bubble year.
Isaac Trotter:
Really makes the Belmont meltdown hurt even more. It's already a bad year for at-large bubble teams, and then we lose the possibility of any real contenders from the Missouri Valley Conference because the No. 1 seed Bruins blew it to sub.-500 Drake.
David Cobb:
My thing on Auburn is that if it won a couple games in the SEC Tournament and finished two games above .500, it already has six wins over projected at-large teams -- including one of the best wins by anyone in college basketball all season (at Florida).
So if you just take away the loss-volume thing -- which obviously you can't actually do -- then it would be Auburn. But that many losses is what it is.
How do you lose at home to Ole Miss? Just don't do that.
Isaac Trotter:
The Mississippi State meltdown was also egregious.
Missed two dunks in the home stretch.
Matt Norlander:
Unwilling to hear Auburn's case until it hits 19 wins at minimum. Which means it needs to get to the SEC semis.
That won't be happening.
Isaac Trotter:
The Sooner basketball fans out there are going insane right now. OU just knocked off Texas in Austin.
David Cobb:
If Oklahoma makes the SEC Tournament semis and loses there, it would be 20-15 with a good number of Quad 1 victories.
Predictives already better than you might think. Playing well right now. Not saying it's gonna happen, but there's a 3% chance.
Isaac Trotter:
OU will be around -0.7 WAB with this one. One or two more SEC Tournament wins ...
David Cobb:
This is where I love that it's the CBS Sports Bracketology model doing this, and the model's bubble interpretations have been really good all year. So I don't have to make the decision.
But we are doing this thing where we send out a few updates on key expected seeding changes twice per day, and I'm just like -- I have no idea what to do with that last spot right now. As of Sunday morning, we have Missouri, VCU, SMU and Stanford as the last four in (in order) and then Oklahoma, Cal, Auburn and New Mexico as the first four out. Let's see what changes the conference tournaments bring.
