NCAA Tournament First Four: Expert likes UMBC, Texas to advance to Round of 64 with victories on Tuesday

The NCAA Tournament's First Four tips off from Dayton on Tuesday with No. 16 UMBC of the America East facing No. 16 Howard of the MEAC at 6:40 ET on truTV and then No. 11 Texas of the SEC facing No. 11 NC State of the ACC at 9:15 ET on the same channel. Let's take a look at each game and give a pick.

At least one First Four participant has advanced to the second round in 12 of 14 tournaments, and five have reached the Sweet 16. Two have gotten to the Final Four: UCLA in 2021 and VCU in 2011. So maybe we have to wait until 2031 for that to happen again.

The winner between UMBC and Howard faces Big Ten runner-up and Midwest No. 1 seed Michigan in the Round of 64. The Retrievers (24-8, 19-11 ATS) were America East regular season champions and routed No. 2 seed Vermont 74-59 to win the conference tournament title behind a career-high 33 points from graduate guard DJ Armstrong. He averages the most made 3-pointers per game (2.6) and has the best 3-point shooting percentage (40.4%) in the America East this season. His dad is former NBA Sixth Man of the Year Darrell Armstrong.

UMBC has won 12 games in a row, the second-longest active streak nationally, and is dancing for the first time since 2018 when it was a No. 16 seed and knocked off No. 1 seed and defending national champion Virginia by 20 points in the biggest upset in tournament history. That remains UMBC's only NCAA Tournament win in three tries.

Tuesday is UMBC's first trip to the First Four, but the America East is 2-0 all-time in that round (Vermont in 2012, Albany in 2014). If it were to win, and I think it will, schools from that league are 1-18 all-time in the Round of 64. The Retrievers are 16-2 in their past 18 games against the MEAC dating to 2015 and routed Howard 95-77 in the 2024-25 regular season.

Howard (23-10, 21-8 ATS) was the MEAC regular-season champ and beat NC Central in the conference title game for an eighth straight win and fifth all-time trip to the Big Dance. The Bison are 0-4 in their previous four trips, including 0-1 in the First Four.

They have a terrific 1-2 punch in Bryce Harris (17.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG), the MEAC Player of the Year, and Cedric Taylor III (17.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG), the MEAC Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year. Howard is the only Division I school to have two players averaging at least 17 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. MEAC teams are 4-7 in the First Four.

KenPom ranks the Retrievers at No. 185 and the Bison at No. 207. 

As for the late game featuring the Longhorns vs. the Wolfpack, know that six of the past seven at-large teams with 14-plus losses to reach the first round won their first round game. Texas is the only team that fits this description in this year's field. Including last year's loss in the First Four to Xavier, the Longhorns are 0-6 as a No. 8 seed or worse in the bracket since 2005. All those games were decided by single digits, with two going to overtime. 

Texas and NC State are two of five teams nationally with four qualified players averaging at least 13.0 PPG. Texas (18-14, 16-15 ATS) is playing up-tempo in its first season under coach Sean Miller as the Horns are averaging 83.8 points per game, their most since 1994-95. Texas is shooting 48.7% from the field, its best since 1988-89 the team hit 48.7%. UT ranks No. 13 in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency but 112th in defensive efficiency.

Miller came from Xavier, the team that ended UT's 2024-25 season in the First Four, and brought star and junior guard Dailyn Swain with him. He leads UT in scoring (17.8), rebound (7.6), assists (3.4) and steals per game (1.7) and is one of two Division I players averaging at least 17 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists on 50% shooting from the field along with Duke's Cameron Boozer, the sure-fire Wooden Award winner. Swain is a finalist for the Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Award.

Meanwhile, it's the 10th straight tournament appearance in which the Wolfpack have been a No. 8 seed or worse. They won four games as a No. 11 seed en route to the Final Four in 2024 but those are the school's only bracket wins in the past 10 years. NC State did advance to at least the Sweet 16 two of the past three times it was a No. 11 seed.  

The Wolfpack (20-13, 15-18 ATS) also are playing fast under first-year coach Will Wade, ranking third in the ACC in scoring at 83.7 PPG, most for the school since 1990-91. They lead the ACC in 3-point shooting (38.8%) and are third in 3-point makes per game (10.4). Ven-Allen Lubin is shooting an absurd 67.6% from the field overall, third-best in ACC history. Paul McNeil Jr. has made 102 3-pointers, second-most in the conference. 

The winner of this game faces No. 6 BYU  in the first round of the West Region, and could beat the Cougars. I believe that winner will be Texas, which has the size advantage Tuesday. NC State has lost seven of nine, allowing 87.3 PPG in that span, after an 18-6 start and also lost to the Horns 102-97 on Nov. 26 in the Maui Invitational. 

UT shot 50% (16 of 32) on 3-pointers and 55.8% (29 of 52) from the field and held a 24-7 advantage in fast-break points. Swain had 14 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Lubin had 23 points on 10-for-13 shooting. Texas was 1-6 this season when allowing teams to hit better than 42% from the outside. That was the lone victory as the Wolfpack hit 47% from deep. 

The SportsLine Projection Model has 161 points scored Tuesday, and NC State winning by a point in what should be a track meet with both poor defensively. KenPom ranks the Wolfpack three spots higher, but I like the Horns with the best player on the floor in Swain and coming from a much better conference. If it comes down to free throws, UT ranks fourth nationally at 19.8 makes per game.