NCAA Basketball: Virginia at North Carolina
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Every single team has played at least 17 games, so we're starting to get a clearer picture of what's in play for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. There are now 17 teams with a 100% chance of getting into the field, per Bart Torvik's simulations. We'll call them locks because it would take something tragic in the last seven weeks for these clubs not to dance.

LOCKS

Let's dive into the good, bad and ugly for six fascinating resumes, including some early lessons learned about the value of road wins.

Alabama

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: No. 5 seed

Alabama might be 13-5, but Nate Oats' aggressive scheduling model is paying off. Alabama has eight victories against Quad 1 or Quad 2 opponents. Only eight other teams have more right now. 

Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a fairly new resume metric that the NCAA seeding committee will use for just the second time. WAB loves road wins. Oats' decision to play St. John's on the road and Illinois at the United Center in Chicago was wise, and Alabama is reaping the reward. Both of those victories earned Alabama over 0.8 Wins Above Bubble apiece. So even with blowout losses to contenders like Purdue and Arizona and a home loss to Texas, Alabama still ranks 16th in WAB because it has been a road warrior and built up a callus.

This is a flawed squad that will not win the national championship because of its issues on the glass, but Oats has Alabama positioned to earn a top-five seed because he has played the toughest schedule in the country so far. That path gives Alabama more than a puncher's chance to make the second weekend for the fifth time in the last six seasons. Grade the resume: B+

Indiana

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: OUT

February is right around the corner, and Indiana still does not have a win it feels great about. The Hoosiers are just 1-4 in road games and own a 1-7 record in Quad 1 or Quad 2 contests. Nonconference wins over Marquette and Kansas State were supposed to be Quad 2 victories, at minimum, but 10-9 Kansas State is one of the Big 12 bottom-feeders (despite spending boatloads of cash), and Marquette is a somewhat surprising Big East cellar-dweller.

Indiana's result-based metrics paint a scary picture right now. The Hoosiers sit 58th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Predictive metrics like KenPom (38th nationally) and Bart Torvik (26th) are still bullish on the Hoosiers' upside, but those projections seem aggressive to the naked eye. Indiana's lack of tip-top athleticism is jarring. Thankfully, Indiana has the sixth-toughest remaining Big Ten slate, so resume-boosting opportunities are obvious, but it's getting late early for Darian DeVries' boys. Grade: D 

North Carolina

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: No. 8 seed

Three road losses to SMU, Stanford and Cal have sent North Carolina careening back towards the bubble. UNC is still on pace to make the tournament, but its resume is just … fine? 4-4 against the top two quadrants. No bad losses. 27th in the NET. 25th in WAB. 33rd in KenPom and 35th at Torvik. This is a rock-solid resume, but it lacks oomph. UNC's road victory over Kentucky is its best win on the board, and no one will complain about beating Kansas at home. But UNC needs to get on a heater and show some guts on the road if it wants to avoid the dreaded 8/9 slot. Grade: B-

Virginia Tech

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: Last Four In

Virginia Tech has been in some doozies.  If Stanford's Ebuka Okorie doesn't put on the cape in the last two minutes, or SMU's Boopie Miller doesn't drain a halfcourt heave, Virginia Tech's resume would be in phenomenal shape. But the 15-5 Hokies are also fortunate to be 4-0 in overtime games this year, including a triple-overtime, "dumpster fire flipped into a classic" win over hated rival Virginia. That victory is a major feather in the cap, and Wednesday's road win over Syracuse will help as well.

The NET isn't high on Virginia Tech right now, slotting the Hokies at 49th. Predictive metrics like KenPom aren't overly sold, either. But Virginia Tech is 39th in WAB, has seven wins against the top two quadrants, zero bad losses and didn't play a cupcake schedule. 

Virginia Tech feels poised to play eight more nip-and-tuck games that are tied with four minutes to go. Go 5-3 in those barnburners, and Mike Young is back in the dance for the first time since 2022. Grade: B

TCU

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: First Four Out

Does anyone have a pulse on what to expect from this TCU club? I sure don't. The Frogs' Quad 4 loss to New Orleans is going to linger like a wet-dog odor for a while, but TCU also has neutral-site victories over Florida and Wisconsin! Legitimately great victories. TCU earned +1.37 WAB for those two wins alone. 

TCU sits 60th in WAB, 46th in the NET and 52nd on KenPom. There's still ages to go, but it's hard to shake the feeling that if it misses the Big Dance, TCU will look back to when it had Michigan, BYU and Kansas all on the ropes and stole defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Gut-wrenching. Grade: C-

Washington 

Current CBS Sports' bracketology projection: OUT

Danny Sprinkle is not playing his full deck of cards, but liftoff isn't happening for the group that calls Alaska Airlines Arena home. Wesley Yates is back on the shelf, and Desmond Claude is hurt again, too. Zoom Diallo and Hannes Steinbach have been warriors, but Washington's case for an at-large bid feels objectively dead already because it could not store enough hay in the barn against a brutal eight-game schedule to kick off Big Ten play. 

Injuries aside, Washington missed a massive opportunity last week with back-to-back home losses to Michigan and Michigan State. It lost both of those Quad 1 home opportunities. Killer. UW has the easiest Big Ten slate remaining, but the Huskies are just 1-6 in Quad 1 games. Washington has no bad losses (Seattle U on the road is only a Quad 2 defeat), but it needs to stack quality victories, and there aren't many opportunities left on the board.

The metrics paint a dreary picture. Washington is 70th when averaging the result-based metrics. It is 50th on KenPom and 56th on Bart Torvik. Without a miraculous close, the brilliant Steinbach will not dance in 2026. Grade: D-