NCAA Tournament predictions: College basketball expert has Midwest Region Cinderella, team to avoid and winner
College basketball expert Thomas Casale has analyzed the Midwest Region in the 2026 tournament and offers a Cinderella team, one to avoid and his regional champion
The Midwest Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament features top seeds Michigan and Iowa State, followed by teams with a lot of question marks.
Texas Tech is down its best player in JT Toppin. Alabama could be down one of its best players in Aden Holloway. Kentucky and Tennessee both had down years. Is this the region where we could see some upsets? I think so.
Here is a breakdown of the Midwest region with a potential Cinderella, bracket buster and Final Four pick.
Midwest Region bracket strategy
Cinderella to watch: No. 13 Hofstra
If you follow my picks, you know I do pretty well in Alabama games. I know which teams the Crimson Tide will roll and which ones will give them trouble. While Alabama has miles more talent than Hofstra on paper, the Pride profile as a team that matches up pretty well with the Tide.
Alabama struggles against teams that hammer them on the offensive boards. That's why Florida and Tennessee have given the Tide problems over the last couple of years. Hofstra ranks 51st in offensive rebounding percentage and does a great job of converting second-chance opportunities. That's key against Alabama because the Tide score so often, you can't survive going one and done on the offensive end of the floor.
There is also a good chance Alabama could be without Holloway for this matchup. He was arrested on felony drug charges, and while I assume he won't be playing, nothing was official at the time of writing.
The other thing I like about Hofstra is it has done well when stepping up in competition. The Pride beat Syracuse and Pittsburgh on the road and lost to UCF by just four. I understand Syracuse and Pittsburgh weren't any good this year, but those are still big road wins for a mid-major team.
If Hofstra can get by Alabama, it will either be Akron or Texas Tech. Let's assume it's the higher-seeded Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming into the tournament short-handed without Toppin, and I believe they are ripe for an early exit.
If you are looking for a lower seed that can shock people and reach the Sweet 16, give Hofstra a look. The Pride are one of the more talented mid-major teams in the field.
Bracket buster alert: No. 10 Santa Clara vs. No. 7 Kentucky
I obviously like Hofstra as a potential bracket buster, but since the Pride are my Cinderella pick, let's go with Santa Clara upsetting Kentucky. It's hard to believe that the Wildcats were a top-10 team entering the season. Injuries and poor roster management led to Kentucky finishing 21-13 and earning a No. 7 seed.
I think Mark Pope is in all kinds of trouble, and a loss here certainly won't help. Santa Clara is a dangerous opponent, because the Broncos can exploit two of Kentucky's biggest weaknesses: three-point defense and turnovers. Santa Clara shoots just under 37 percent from three-point range and ranked No. 1 in the West Coast Conference in creating turnovers.
I expect this to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Santa Clara is one of the upsets I picked in my brackets. I like the matchup, and if the threes are falling, the Broncos have a good chance to advance.
Team to avoid: No. 6 Tennessee
I don't like this Tennessee team at all. The Volunteers lack scorers, don't shoot well from the perimeter, struggle from the free throw line and turn the ball over way too much. Other than that, Tennessee is in great shape.
The one thing the Volunteers do well is rebound. Tennessee is the top offensive rebounding team in the country, so that helped offset the poor shooting at times throughout the regular season. However, that can only take you so far in a one-and-done setting. At some point, teams need to make shots.
Tennessee actually gets a favorable first-round matchup against either SMU or Miami (Ohio). Those are matchups where the Vols' dominant rebounding could be enough to get them to the next round. That's as far as I see them going, though, with Virginia the likely opponent in the Round of 32.
Rick Barnes gets criticized for his poor tournament performance, but in his defense, he doesn't have the horses this season. Look for Tennessee's stay in the tournament to be a short one.
Region winner: No. 2 Iowa State
If you asked me which team got the best draw in the entire field, I would say Iowa State. The only team in the bottom half of the bracket I believe can compete with the Cyclones is Virginia, although I give Iowa State the edge in that matchup.
If the Cyclones reach the Elite Eight and face top seed Michigan, this is where the Wolverines' ball-handling issues will come into play. Michigan lost backup point guard LJ Cason for the season and ranked 14th in the Big Ten in turnovers. Iowa State's ball-pressure defense might be too much for the Wolverines, so I'll take the Cyclones to advance to the Final Four.
