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College basketball fans love to argue the Duke Blue Devils always have a favorable path to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament. Sometimes that may be the case, but not this year. The East region is loaded with multiple threats to Duke including Connecticut, Michigan State, St. John's and Kansas. 

Duke won the ACC conference tournament but enters the main bracket short-handed after losing point guard Caleb Foster for the season. Will that be enough for another team to upend the Blue Devils and win the region?

Here is a breakdown of the NCAA Tournament's East region with a potential Cinderella, bracket buster and regional champion pick. 

When making your picks, be sure to check out the SportsLine optimal bracket from the SportsLine data team. Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

East Region bracket strategy

Cinderella to watch: No. 7 UCLA

UCLA has some injury concerns entering the tournament but if you believe head coach Mick Cronin, both Donovan Dent (calf strain) and Tyler Bilodeau (knee) will be ready for Friday's matchup against UCF. If that's the case, the Bruins are a dangerous team in the East Region. 

UCLA went 6-2 down the stretch with wins over Illinois and Michigan State. The Bruins found their offensive rhythm late in the season, scoring 80+ points four times in that six game stretch. The health of Dent and Bilodeau is key though. The duo combined to average 31.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game this season. 

I don't hate how the bottom half of the East region shakes out for UCLA. Assuming they get by UCF, the Bruins will have to deal with UConn, then likely Michigan State or Louisville in the Sweet 16. Those aren't terrible matchups for UCLA. The Bruins split with Michigan State this season, can get UConn into a rock fight and would be able to exploit a Louisville defense that struggles to defend against quality opponents. 

I think the upper part of the bracket is tougher with Duke, Kansas and St. John's. If we get a Cinderella in the East region, look for it to come from the lower half and UCLA is the sleeper with the highest ceiling. 

Bracket buster alert: No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville

Start your engines. South Florida and Louisville are going to fly up and down the court on Thursday. The Bulls play at the 15th fastest pace in the country, while the Cardinals come in at 62. The winner of this game will likely have to score 80+.

Louisville's tournament success comes down to the health of point guard Mikel Brown Jr. The five-star freshman is averaging 18.2 points this season but has missed time throughout the year with multiple injuries. Louisville isn't close to the same team without him in the lineup. Brown sat out the ACC conference tournament with a back injury and while head coach Pat Kelsey said he is improving, there is no guarantee the future NBA lottery pick will play against South Florida. 

The Bulls have a chance to pull the upset even if Brown plays. However, if the Cardinals are without their floor general, that gives USF an edge in a fast-paced game. We know the Bulls can score. An upset will come down to if their defense can get enough stops. South Florida put up 95 on Oklahoma State and 93 on Alabama earlier this season. However, they lost those games by allowing over 100 points both times.

I think this is one of the most intriguing matchups in the first round. Keep an eye on Brown's status. If he's out, I like South Florida's chances to pull the upset and advance as the No. 11 seed.

Team to avoid: No. 3 Michigan State

A red flag for me entering the tournament is a team that turns the ball over a lot. At some point, you will face an opponent that pressures the ball and creates a lot of easy baskets off turnovers. 

Michigan State ranks 213th in turnover percentage and 218th in steal percentage. What does that mean? It means the Spartans will have a heck of time beating teams like UConn that pressure the ball.

Now, turnovers aren't the only thing that decides basketball games. Michigan State is an elite rebounding team on both ends of the floor. When Tom Izzo has success in the tournament, he typically has physical teams that dominate the boards. That's the case this season. 

I still worry about the offense overall though. The Spartans ranked 11th in the Big Ten in two-point field goal percentage. Teams that turn the ball over and struggle to shoot consistently typically don't make deep tournament runs. 

When I watch Michigan State play, I see a solid Sweet 16 team with limited upside. This isn't the year Izzo makes another Final Four.

Region champion: No. 2 UConn

I don't think there are a lot of players that move the needle in college basketball. However, losing a good point guard at the end of the season is one of the exceptions. Duke is still talented enough to reach the national semifinal, although at some point I think the Foster injury catches up with the Blue Devils. In my brackets, I took UConn to beat Duke in the regional final.

The Huskies run hot and cold but this is still a team that has wins over St. John's, BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas this season. That's a pretty impressive resume. 

UConn is an elite defensive and rebounding team. The Huskies will need to make perimeter shots consistently to reach the national semifinal and the East may be the toughest of the four regions. Still, I think it comes down to Duke and UConn. I'll take the Huskies to pull the minor upset and reach another Final Four.