NCAA Tournament predictions: South region Cinderella, team to avoid and winner from college basketball expert

Last season ended when Florida and Houston went down to the final possession in the national championship. Those two could meet again this year in the Elite Eight in the South region. 

The South may not be as deep as some of the other regions, although there are potential potholes for the two top seeds with Illinois, Nebraska, Vanderbilt and North Carolina in the bracket. Florida dominated the SEC regular season before falling in the tournament. Are the Gators Final Four bound for a second year in a row or will they get tripped up before reaching Indianapolis?

Here is a breakdown of the South region with a potential Cinderella, bracket buster and Final Four pick. 

When making your picks, be sure to check out the SportsLine optimal bracket from the SportsLine data team. Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn's championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

South Region bracket strategy

Cinderella to watch: No. 7 Saint Mary's

I have a lot invested in Houston to win the national title and I love the Cougars' path in the South region with one caveat…a potential second-round matchup against Saint Mary's.

I'll be rooting hard for Texas A&M to knock Saint Mary's b because if the Gaels face Houston in the second game, we all know what to expect. It will be the college basketball version of a root canal. I like the winner of that matchup to reach the Elite Eight with No. 1 Florida looming. 

Should Saint Mary's get by Houston, I think it has the type of team to bother either North Carolina or Illinois. Yes, the Gaels will need to win two games as underdogs to reach the Elite Eight but Randy Bennett's squad is a tough team to prepare for in a tournament setting. 

We are obviously picking longer shots here to make a deep tournament run. If Saint Mary's can survive a rock fight with Houston, I like this to be the year the Gaels finally get over the hump in March. 

Bracket buster alert: No. 13 Troy vs. No. 4 Nebraska

Nebraska stumbled down the stretch, finishing 6-6 after starting the season 20-0. The Cornhuskers are a talented team that can win a couple of games in the tournament, although they got a tough first round draw in Troy. 

One thing I look at when picking an upset is mid-major teams that won't be intimated facing bigger schools. Troy fits that description. The Trojans beat San Diego State in double overtime earlier this season then lost to USC in triple overtime just two days later. 

Another reason Troy has a puncher's chance in this matchup is because one of the Trojans' strengths is defending the perimeter. That's vital when facing Nebraska. The Cornhuskers attempt the 11th most three-pointers per game. If Nebraska isn't hitting threes early, Troy can stay in this game. 

Two other things to watch in this matchup: Nebraska is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country and it doesn't get to the free-throw line much. A lot of times mid-major teams get overpowered in the paint, but I don't see that being the case here. 

Troy is one of the few first round upsets I picked in my bracket. The Trojans are a talented mid-major team that got the right matchup to bust some brackets in the South region.

Team to avoid: No. 6 North Carolina

VCU is a sexy first round upset pick over North Carolina. It's not surprising with the Tar Heels losing future NBA lottery pick Caleb Wilson for the season. While I do like UNC to survive its first game, a deep tournament run without Wilson remains unlikely. 

The biggest issue for the Heels is the draw. To reach the Elite Eight, UNC will likely need to upset both Illinois and Houston. I just don't see that happening. While Hubert Davis still has a talented roster even without Wilson, there are other concerns too.

The Tar Heels don't rebound well, finished last in the ACC in three-point defense, and shoot just 68% from the foul line. I wasn't overly high on this team even with Wilson in the lineup. 

I can see UNC winning one game with a Sweet 16 appearance being the absolute ceiling for this team. The Heels just aren't good enough to make a deep run without their best player.

Region champion: No. 1 Florida

Back in December, I bet Houston +1600 to win the national championship. While I have a lot invested in the Cougars, they aren't as good as last year's version. The offense lacks scorers outside of freshman star Kingston Flemings and they are too dependent on the three-point shot. 

I do see the South region being mostly chalk though with the two top seeds advancing to the Elite Eight. Like last year's title game, I expect Florida to prevail in a close game. The Gators looked uninterested in the SEC Tournament. That happens sometimes after a team dominates a conference in the regular season. I expect a much more focused Florida squad in the NCAA Tournament. 

The Gators rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are also an elite rebounding team on both ends of the court. I wouldn't read too much into Florida getting upset in the SEC Tournament. Todd Golden has the horses to make a second straight national championship run.