NCAA Tournament predictions: West Region Cinderella, bracket buster, winner from college basketball expert
College basketball expert Thomas Casale looks at the West Region in the 2026 tournament and picks a Cinderella, team to avoid and regional champion
The West can be defined as the "Region of Champions." The region is home to Arizona, Purdue, Arkansas and Gonzaga, all teams that won their conference tournaments. And for good measure, the committee threw in Wisconsin, which owns road wins over Michigan, Illinois and Purdue this season.
Here is a breakdown of the West Region with a potential Cinderella, bracket buster and Final Four pick.
West Region bracket strategy
Cinderella to watch: No. 7 Miami
Miami is a team that plays better than the metrics suggest. The Canes rank top 40 in offensive and defensive efficiency, although their talent doesn't jump off the page. Head coach Jai Lucas did a great job of using the transfer portal to assemble a group that meshes well together.
The one thing Miami does exceptionally well is rebound. The Hurricanes ranked second in the ACC in offensive rebounding, behind Duke, and first in defensive rebounding. That's one of the key metrics I look at in the NCAA Tournament, because teams traveling and playing on neutral courts don't always shoot well early in games. Second-chance opportunities can keep a team in games, while poor rebounding teams can fall behind early and never recover.
The Canes got a tough draw facing Missouri in St. Louis. While the Tigers will certainly have the home crowd behind them, one of the things I like about the Hurricanes is they won 10 games away from home this season.
If Miami beats Missouri, it's likely Purdue and Gonzaga in the next two games. While the Canes will be underdogs against both teams, those aren't awful matchups because Miami can compete in the paint with two bigger front lines.
I identified Miami a couple of months ago as a team I thought could surprise in March. The Canes have a really tough opener, but things will get interesting if Miami beats Missouri on Friday. The Canes to reach the Sweet 16 may be worth a look.
Bracket buster alert: No. 13 Hawaii vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Arkansas comes into the NCAA Tournament flying high after winning the SEC. The Razorbacks better be focused, though, because they drew a tough Hawaii team that matches up well with them.
There is no denying Arkansas has an elite offense that plays at a lightning speed behind freshman star Darius Acuff. However, the Hogs can struggle defensively at times, especially near the rim. This is where Hawaii excels. The Rainbow Warriors are one of the tallest teams in the country and rank 62nd in two-point field goal percentage.
This will be a fast-paced game, as Hawaii likes to get up and down the court too. Can they keep up with the Razorbacks? It depends which Arkansas defense shows up. I took the Hogs to advance in my bracket, although they drew one of the toughest first-round matchups for a No. 4 seed.
Team to avoid: No. 6 BYU
BYU is fortunate to get a No. 6 seed. The Cougars lost Richie Saunders and his 18 points per game for the season. BYU also went just 7-9 in its last 16 games.
A team that trots out AJ Dybantsa has a shot any night. The potential top pick in the NBA Draft is good enough to lead BYU to the Sweet 16. However, it's the Cougars' defense that will limit their upside. BYU ranks 57th in defensive efficiency and allowed at least 86 points in eight of its last 15 games.
The Cougars will face the winner of Texas and NC State with a likely matchup against Gonzaga on deck. BYU had Final Four hopes before the season, but it feels like one tournament win is the ceiling this year.
Region champion: No. 1 Arizona
I think the Big 12 is the best conference in college basketball and the Wildcats dominated it, going 16-2 with those two losses coming by a combined seven points. Arizona won both the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament championships. The Wildcats also went unbeaten in non-conference games with wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama and UCLA. Bottom line; the Wildcats have the most impressive resume entering the NCAA Tournament.
Not only do I have Arizona rated as the top team, I think it got a favorable draw in the West. While the region has some good teams, most of them like to play fast. The Wildcats excel at playing at a faster tempo and have a much better defense than Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Arkansas and Purdue.
Arizona is my pick to win the national championship. They don't shoot a ton of threes, but overall, the Wildcats are the most complete team I've seen this season.
