In looking at this year's NCAA Women's NCAA Tournament Final Four, there are three teams that most people felt would be here in No. 1 seeds Stanford, South Carolina and UConn. Those three teams have bounced around the top-five all season and found themselves playing their best basketball heading into the NCAA Tournament.
There is one team, however, that most people could not have predicted: Arizona. The Wildcats, led by coach Adia Barnes, have had a magical run through the tournament thus far defeating No. 2 seed Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, No. 4 seed Indiana in the Elite Eight to make it to their first Final Four in just the fifth year under Barnes.
They also have one of the best players in the country in Aari McDonald. McDonald, a senior, decided to return to Arizona following last year's cancellation of the NCAA Tournament to do just this: help Arizona get to a Final Four.
McDonald, a point guard, will be joined in this Final Four by other elite point guards. If you love guard play, you are going to love this Final Four. For UConn, Arizona's opponent in the national semifinal, their point guard needs no introduction. Paige Bueckers, who was recently named AP National Player of the Year, had 28 points in the Huskies Elite Eight thrilling win over Baylor. On the other side of the bracket, where Stanford will meet South Carolina, Cardinal senior Kiana Williams and South Carolina sophomore Zia Cooke, will highlight a matchup of two of the best teams in the country and two of the best coaches in history in Tara VanDerveer and Dawn Staley.
Barnes and Staley are set to make history of their own, as this will be the first time in history that two Black head coaches have made the Final Four.
Barnes, VanDerveer and Staley are also joined by Geno Auriemma, a coach who is no stranger to this stage, and who has 11 national championships to his credit.
Coaches, players, and program history will provide plenty of storylines and excitement as this Final Four is bound to be a great one. Which teams have the advantage? What factors will dictate a winner and eventual champion? Let's take a look.
No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 1 South Carolina
When: Friday, 6 p.m. Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live streaming: fuboTV (Try for free)
Stanford overcame a 12-point halftime deficit to Louisville in the Elite Eight, by out-scoring the Cardinals by 27 points in the second half en route to a 15-point victory. The Cardinal, who are led by Williams as well as super-sophomore Haley Jones, received a tremendous game from Ashten Prechtel, who scored 16 points off the bench, going a perfect 6 of 6 from the field. Lexie Hull finished with a team-high 21 points, while Jones dominated the glass, finishing with 10 points and 10 rebounds.
Anna Wilson is the defensive stalwart for VanDerveer's team, and will likely draw the assignment of guarding Cooke in the semifinal. Freshman Cameron Brink anchors Stanford's interior defense and had nine points and four blocks in limited minutes. She left with an injury, but returned to see limited action, and should be good to go Friday night.
South Carolina is led by the dynamic guard-forward combo of Cooke and AP First Team All-American Aliyah Boston. Cooke, who was named the Most Outstanding Player in the Hemisfair Region, scored 16 points in South Carolina's easy 28-point victory over No. 6 seed Texas. Boston finished that game with 10 points and eight rebounds and she has been a consistent double-double threat all season.
Destinni Henderson, Victaria Saxton and Brea Beal round out the starting lineup for Staley's team, and complete one of the most talented starting fives in the country. Laeticia Amihere is their spark off the bench and bench scoring will be key for South Carolina in this one, as Stanford is the deepest team in the country. In fact, this semifinal matchup may be pitting the two deepest teams in the country against each other for a spot in the championship.
Who wins?
In early December, I picked UConn to defeat South Carolina in the national championship game. There is a great chance of that happening, however, I have come completely around on Stanford. They just have so many weapons and have really only played one poor half over the last month and it was the first half against Louisville.
For South Carolina to win, Cooke is going to need to have a big game. I expect Boston to play really well. The Boston vs. Brink matchup inside is going to be fun to watch, but Brink is prone to getting in foul trouble, and there may not be a more crafty, polished post in the country than Boston. I think the Gamecocks win the war on the inside, but Stanford's ability to have multiple players knock down the three may be the difference. That, along with Wilson's defense, will send the Cardinal back to the national championship game. Prediction: Stanford 78, South Carolina 71
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 3 Arizona
When: Friday, 9:30 p.m. Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live streaming: fuboTV (Try for free)
It really doesn't matter how UConn got here, the fact is that the Huskies are here and deservedly so.
Their Elite Eight game against Baylor was a national championship level game, which should serve this team very well heading into Friday night. While we are used to seeing UConn compete on this stage, the fact is that only Christyn Williams and Olivia Nelson-Ododa have been here before and have previous tournament experience. That is what made UConn's game and win over Baylor even more meaningful. It's impossible to simulate that level of competition on this stage.
Bueckers is the leader and the focal point for Auriemma's team. She can help the Huskies beat you in a multitude of ways. She is capable of going out and dropping a triple-double and scoring just 15 or 16 points, or she can beat you by scoring 28 or 30, like she did against Baylor. She is a creator on the offensive end and the Wildcats will have their hands full in trying to stop her.
Williams has also been terrific, particularly in UConn's Sweet 16 win over Iowa, where she finished with 27 points. Evina Westbrook finished just one rebound shy of a triple-double in that game as well, and will be critical for the Huskies on both ends of the floor. Nelson-Ododa and freshman Aaliyah Edwards will be looked upon to control the glass and the interior defensively, for which they have been terrific in this tournament.
As previously mentioned, Arizona is making their first appearance, but don't let that fool you. Barnes will have her team ready and they are confident. While they haven't been to this stage before, they do boast the most experienced (by age) starting five in the Final Four, starting three seniors and two juniors. They are also led by McDonald, who was named a Second Team AP All-American, and is coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances that helped guide the Wildcats to the national semifinals.
Arizona boasts the 13th best scoring defense in the country heading into Friday night and that consists of a number of games coming against some of the best teams in the country playing in the Pac-12. Trinity Baptiste, Cate Reese, Sam Thomas and Bendu Yeaney complete the starting lineup for the Wildcats and it is a lineup that can really get after it defensively. The question is who will step up as the second and third scorers? Baptiste finished with 12 in their win over Indiana, but no one else finished with more than six. This will be key if the Wildcats are to pull off the upset.
Who wins?
I think the key difference here is who will step up as a second and third scorer for each team. The Huskies have a number of players that have proven they can do that, led by Williams and Westbrook. Baptiste, Reese, Yeaney and Thomas all have the ability to compliment McDonald's scoring, but they haven't been as consistent as you would like to see.
McDonald will likely draw the defensive assignment of guarding Bueckers and I see her giving Bueckers fits. I don't think it will be easy for UConn at all as two of the top-15 defenses get set to play in this one. In the end, I think UConn just has too much offensive firepower. I also don't think Williams will allow McDonald to go off offensively again. If this game is with 8-10 points at the half, Arizona will be in it to the end, as their confidence will only rise as the game goes on. They are also playing with a massive chip on their shoulder and with tremendous joy. That's a dangerous combination, but I'll take UConn. Prediction: UConn 72, Arizona 59
National Championship: Stanford vs. UConn
When: Sunday, 6 p.m. Where: Alamodome, San Antonio
TV: ESPN: | Live streaming: fuboTV (Try for free)
Any matchup we get in the national championship will be a great one, but a Stanford-UConn game would see the two winningest coaches in women's college basketball history and two of the top-three winningest coaches in college basketball history against each other in VanDerveer and Auriemma.
It would also give us the experienced senior point guard in Stanford's Williams against UConn's freshman sensation Bueckers, and a matchup of the last two top-ranked recruits in Jones (2019) and Bueckers (2020). In the end, it would simply give us a tremendous basketball game. I picked UConn in December. I picked Stanford in March. I'm sticking with the Cardinal for the reason I picked them just four weeks ago. Depth and balance. Stanford wins in OT. Prediction: Stanford 84, UConn 81 (OT)
