Purdue vs. Iowa State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Boilermakers meet Cyclones in top-10 clash
Here's what you need to know ahead of a top-10 showdown between Purdue and Iowa State
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4 min read
Purdue and Iowa State have made it their personal mission to dominate nonconference play. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Purdue and Iowa State are a combined 99-9 against nonleague foes. That's the best two marks in the sport, and they both exited November without an L on the ledger.
That makes Saturday's tilt between No. 1 Purdue and No. 10 Iowa State a paradox unlike any other: unstoppable force meets immovable object between two undefeated teams who are built on retention.
Purdue retained its Big Three of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. Iowa State retained its Big Three of Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson.
They play different ways, but Iowa State and Purdue share plenty of common ground.
Only one will emerge unblemished, though.
Here is everything you need to know ahead of the marquee matchup.
Where to watch Purdue vs. Iowa State live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Mackey Arena -- West Lafayette, Indiana
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
Purdue vs. Iowa State: Need to know
Will Tamin Lipsey play?: That storyline is hanging over this top-10 duel. Lipsey suffered a nasty-looking leg injury late in regulation of Iowa State's victory over St. John's on Nov. 24. Less than two weeks later, Lipsey's status for Saturday's tilt is still up in the air, but he did practice on Friday, per CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein. Lipsey is one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the sport, and he had regained some of his offensive burst in the early-going. If he can suit up, we're in for a treat because Purdue's Braden Smith and Lipsey may be the best two point guards in America.
Joshua Jefferson versus Trey Kaufman-Renn is best on best: No high-major frontcourt player is averaging more assists than Joshua Jefferson (5.6 per game). He's fresh off back-to-back 10-assist showings in romps over Syracuse and Alcorn State, and Jefferson's assist rate has spiked all the way up to 28.3. Absolutely nutty stuff. How does Purdue take Jefferson away? Part of it could include making him work on the other end, defending Kaufman-Renn. The Purdue senior combines finesse with roaring power. Kaufman-Renn still has one of the best soft-touch push shots in the sport, but this year, he's become an utter madman on the glass against rival 4-men. But Jefferson isn't a slouch on the boards and craves physicality. The winner of this individual matchup could tilt the scales.
Corner treys incoming: Iowa State's havoc-wrecking pressure defense leads the entire country in turnover rate. They take the ball away better than anybody, but there are open corner 3-pointers to be found against the 'Clones if you can navigate the onslaught with smart big men. Kaufman-Renn is a willing playmaker and this could be a spot for "Big Game Fletch" to make another appearance. Fletcher Loyer is an utter deadeye this season, shooting over 49% from downtown. CJ Cox has drained 39% of his 28 3-point attempts. If Cox and Loyer are punishing this defense with corner treys, Iowa State is in hot water.
Purdue vs. Iowa State prediction, picks
Ironically, Iowa State and Purdue were Oscar Cluff's two biggest suitors last spring in the transfer portal. Purdue won that recruiting battle, and Iowa State wisely pivoted to Virginia's Blake Buchanan, who has given the Cyclones plenty of good minutes this season. Lipsey (if he plays) versus Smith is the good stuff. Jefferson versus Kaufman-Renn is outstanding. But I wouldn't be surprised if the team who gets the best production from the 5-spot is the winner of this one. Can Buchanan stay out of foul trouble and keep Purdue off the glass? Can Cluff make wise decisions and score or distribute effectively?
In the past, Purdue has struggled with turnover-forcing defenses (Penn State comes to mind), but I think this group has more answers to the test this time around, especially since Cluff and Kaufman-Renn are sharp passers. Purdue has the bodies to throw at Jefferson, and Cox should be able to hang at the point of attack against Iowa State's guards. Milan Momcilovic has a real size advantage at the 3 for Iowa State. I wouldn't be surprised if there are some mid-post backdowns in the arsenal to hunt some of Purdue's smaller guards, but the Boilermakers' defense limits shots at the rim at a sky-high rate this season. If this turns into a jump-shooting contest, give me the home team. Iowa State is shooting a sizzling 43.3% from downtown this year (third-best in America), but I've seen way, way too many good-shooting teams walk into Mackey and miss jumpers to assume that will stick. Pick: Purdue -4.5
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