Since 2004, every eventual national champion in men's college basketball has been ranked inside the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Top 25 poll. So Monday's AP Top 25 poll -- that's right, the Week 6 poll -- carries some historical significance.
UConn last year in Week 6? No. 5. And UConn at season's end? A national champion.
UConn the year before in Week 6? No. 3. And UConn at that season's end? A national champion.
The list goes on and on all the way back to -- who else? -- UConn in 2003-04 when it was ranked No. 1 in Week 6 and finished with the second of three championships under coach Jim Calhoun.
Smart money is on that trend continuing in 2024-25 because that trend has continued for two decades and running. And also because the top five -- No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Auburn, No. 2 Iowa State, No. 4 Duke and No. 5 Kentucky -- all carry 18-1 odds or shorter to win the ship this season.
Here are the top 12 teams in the Week 6 poll:
| Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee | 8-0 |
| 2 | Auburn | 8-1 |
| 3 | Iowa State | 7-1 |
| 4 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 5 | Kentucky | 8-1 |
| 6 | Marquette | 9-1 |
| 7 | Alabama | 7-2 |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 7-2 |
| 9 | Florida | 9-0 |
| 10 | Kansas | 7-2 |
| 11 | Purdue | 8-2 |
| 12 | Oregon | 9-1 |
But thanks to some slow starts from several teams with big potential and a few sleepers waiting in the wings, there's a better chance than other years that the streak could come to an end.
I put together a shortlist of five that could be responsible for bucking the trend and winning the ship as a team ranked outside the top 12 in the Week 6 AP poll. They are as follows.
Odds are via SportsLine consensus
1. Houston
AP rank: 15 | National title odds: 15-1
Why Houston: Three losses in its first eight games have sunk Houston's ranking after opening the year at No. 4. But the Cougars still have the fourth-best odds to win the title despite being ranked outside the top 12, tied with No. 5 Kentucky and No. 7 Alabama at 15-1. They rank No. 1 in BartTorvik's metrics on the season with the No. 7 offense in adjusted efficiency and the No. 2 defense.
2. UConn
AP rank: 18 National title odds: 20-1
Why UConn: Why not UConn? The Huskies have hoisted the trophy as the champion each of the last two years. They fell flat on their face at the Maui Invitational and cratered their standing in the rankings. But they've quietly rallied to win three-straight -- including over Baylor and Texas. They have vets (Alex Karaban, Hassan Diarra among them), some young pieces (Liam McNeeley and Solo Ball) and the best coach in college hoops right now pulling the strings.
3. Baylor
AP rank: NR | National title odds: 35-1
Why Baylor: Only 10 teams have better odds to win the championship than Baylor does right now. From freshmen Rob Wright and VJ Edgecombe to seniors Norchad Omier, Jayden Nunn, Jeremy Roach and Jalen Celestine, the Bears and championship-winning coach Scott Drew have more than enough pieces to right the ship after some stumbles to elite competition early in the season.
4. Michigan
AP rank: 14 | National title odds: 40-1
Why Michigan: Michigan is 8-1 on the season with wins over TCU, Xavier, Wisconsin and most recently, Iowa. First-year coach Dusty May hit big on his portal class and has two beefy 7-footers in Vlad Golden and Danny Wolf patrolling the back end of a stellar-and-still-improving defense.
5. Illinois
AP rank: NR | National title odds: 55-1
Why Illinois: I was a huge fan of what Brad Underwood put together at Illinois dating back to the summer and I don't plan to stop liking the Illini's pieces anytime soon. First-year players Kasaparas Jakucionis, Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic are already playing like multi-year college players while playing a 3-point heavy offensive attack that stylistically fits Underwood's preference and personnel. They're 16th at KenPom.com, 10th at BartTorvik.com and 12th in the NET rankings. Just wait until this mostly-new team gets its feet underneath it.
