Tomorrow's Top 25 Today: Big 12 surges in AP Top 25 ranking projection after week of upsets
With five top-10 teams falling this week, a major shakeup in Monday's poll is all but a certainty
By
Kyle Boone
•
5 min read
Five of the top-10 teams in last week's AP poll suffered a loss in what turned out to be a chaotic week in college basketball, all but guaranteeing us a major shakeup (yet again!) in Monday's refreshed rankings. Among those who stand to benefit most are a trio of Big 12 teams who withstood tough tests this week to extend their hot streaks: Iowa State, Houston and Kansas.
In the latest Top 25 set to be unveiled Monday, Iowa State and Houston are positioned to climb from No. 7 and No. 8, respectively, into the top five, while Kansas is set to climb from outside the top 10 to inside it. No. 3 UConn, No. 4 Duke, No. 5 Illinois and No. 6 Gonzaga all lost in conference play since the last rankings release and will each fall at least two spots each.
That's a projection of how I suspect voters will react to the results of the week -- not how I am reacting. So as I do every week, below is how I think the AP Top 25 will shake out based on ballots submitted from AP voters across the country.
| 1 |  |
| The only major-conference team to be undefeated (23-0) will retain its spot at No. 1. Arizona smashed Oklahoma State by 37 on Saturday to set up a huge Monday matchup vs. surging Kansas in Lawrence. | |
| 2 |  |
| Michigan supplanted UConn at No. 2 last week and it will remain at No. 2 this week after a 41-point victory over Penn State and Sunday's rivalry win over Ohio State. The 22-1 Wolverines are alone atop the Big Ten standings after Illinois fell Saturday vs. Michigan State. | |
| 3 |  |
| Houston's impressive 77-66 road win at BYU on Saturday night stands to have it among the most notable risers Monday into the top five. I'm projecting voters move it to No. 3 as the second-highest ranked Big 12 team behind Arizona -- in line with the current Big 12 standings where the Cougars are second. | |
| 4 |  |
| The two-game skid of mid-January is long in the rearview for Iowa State, which beat Baylor on Saturday to extend its winning streak to five games. TJ Otzelberger's Cyclones are 21-2 on the season and 8-2 in league play. | |
| 5 |  |
| UConn's 18-game winning streak was snapped Friday with an 81-72 road loss to St. John's. The Huskies should fall, but it's unlikely to be too far given its 22-2 record. | |
| 6 |  |
| Duke choked away a 12-point lead at UNC on Saturday, which was ugly. It'll drop a few spots accordingly. But I have Duke likely staying comfortably inside the top-10 with its 21-2 record and ACC-leading 10-1 league record. | |
| 7 |  |
| A road win over Texas Tech and a home win over Utah this week extended KU's winning streak to seven and has it in a prime spot to crash the top 10 for the first time all season. It welcomes No. 1 Arizona into Allen Fieldhouse on Monday. | |
| 8 |  |
| Illinois' winning streak was snapped Saturday at Michigan State with an 85-82 OT loss. The Illini will drop several spots off the loss but I have them remaining as the second-highest ranked team from the Big Ten by a smidge -- ahead of Nebraska and MSU. | |
| 9 |  |
| Nebraska won in its only outing this week at Rutgers, 80-68, snapping a two-game skid after a 20-0 start to the season. | |
| 10 |  |
| An 87-80 loss at Portland on Wednesday will hurt Gonzaga substantially in the polls Monday after it fell as 21.5 point favorites. It's just the second loss for the Bulldogs on the season, though, and they have been dealt a rough hand of late with injuries. | |
| 11 |  |
| There's a fairly wide range for MSU in the polls Monday after it fell to Minnesota on Wednesday then turned around and beat Illinois over the weekend. It could rise as high as No. 9 but also fall one spot from last week's standing at No. 10. Teams from No. 8 to No. 12 in the poll should all be close. | |
| 12 |  |
| UNC has won five-straight and is coming off a 71-68 win Saturday at home over No. 4 Duke, which should boost its standing multiple spots. It is 19-4 on the season with the second-most Quad 1 wins (5) among all ACC teams. | |
| 13 |  |
| It was tough sledding for preseason No. 1 Purdue as it ended January with three consecutive losses. But it is 2-0 this month with a 68-64 win over Oregon this weekend. It should be somewhere in the 11-14 range Monday. | |
| 14 |  |
| Florida seized control of the SEC with a road win over Texas A&M this weekend and now is standing alone in the conference standings. It should be on the rise in the rankings for a third consecutive week after wins in eight of its last nine. | |
| 15 |  |
| An 81-72 win over UConn on Friday helped Rick Pitino's Johnnies to their ninth-straight win. They are 18-5 on the season and 11-1 in Big East play. | |
| 16 |  |
| Saint Louis beat La Salle by 24 points over the weekend to extend its winning streak to 17 games. The Billikens are 11-0 in A-10 play and 23-1 on the season. | |
| 17 |  |
| I have Virginia moving up one spot this week after losses by several teams ranked in the teens last week ahead of the Cavaliers. They have won nine of their last 10 games. | |
| 18 |  |
| Texas Tech shook off its two-game skid with a vital road win over West Virginia on Sunday to improve to 7-3 in Big 12 play. The Red Raiders will likely be a big faller Monday. | |
| 19 |  |
| Clemson's won 13 of its last 14 games -- but only one of those victories came vs. a ranked team, thus the slow burn of the Tigers' rise. Nonetheless, I have them moving up one spot to No. 19. | |
| 20 |  |
| A home loss to lowly Oklahoma in Nashville should cost the Commodores multiple spots in the rankings. They are 3-4 after a 16-0 start to the season. | |
| 21 |  |
| Travis Steele's perfect Redhawks (24-0) will be ranked Monday for a fourth consecutive week thanks to wins over Buffalo (by 2) and Marshall (by 16) this week. KenPom.com has them projected to win all seven remaining regular-season games. | |
| 22 |  |
| Arkansas won in its only outing this week at Mississippi State. It faces lSU and Auburn this week. | |
| 23 |  |
| Three consecutive wins in ACC play should have Louisville moving up in the AP poll at least one spot Monday. The Cardinals seem to be turning a corner and are riding their longest winning streak right now since November. | |
| 24 |  |
| The schedule has no doubt been difficult, but BYU may be in jeopardy of falling out of the rankings Monday. It has lost four-straight -- including five of its last six -- culminating with a Saturday home loss to Houston by 11 points. | |
| 25 |  |
| Alabama shook off its loss at Florida a week ago with wins over then-SEC leader Texas A&M and then at Auburn this week. The Crimson Tide were receiving the second-most votes among unranked teams last week and are in line to be back inside the top 25. | |
