UMBC next game odds vs. Kansas State: Prediction model gives Retrievers slim chance

The computer is only giving UMBC a 14 percent chance, but that's better than it had against Virginia

By CBS Sports Staff

Mar 18, 2018 at 6:47 pm ET • 2 min read

Friday marked the first time in 33 years that a 16-seed finally upended a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite several close calls, the first 135 attempts by a No. 16 to pull off the first-round upset had failed -- until UMBC made history.

On Sunday, the Retrievers will try to prove their win over top-seeded Virginia was no fluke in a 7:45 p.m. ET tipoff against No. 9-seed Kansas State. The 23-11 Wildcats open as 10-point favorites over the 25-10 Retrievers. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 135.5.

SportsLine's advanced computer model, which entered the second round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament on a blistering 5-1 run on spread picks, simulated Kansas State vs. UMBC 10,000 times. What it found out: UMBC only has a 14 percent chance of pulling out its second straight upset win.

Keep in mind, this model gave UMBC a 5 percent shot against Virginia. That might sound low, but when you consider that only 0.6 percent of CBS Sports Bracket Games entries had UMBC winning, 5 percent seems high. And this computer model loved the Retrievers' chances of covering the 20.5-point spread against Virginia, which they obviously did handily.

Jairus Lyles, who had 28 points on 9-of-11 shooting for UMBC in the first round, goes for 16 on Sunday, according to the model, but it won't be enough to send the Retrievers to the Sweet 16. Kansas State ends Cinderella's ball in 86 percent of simulations.

But what about the spread? Should you back K-State -10 or take UMBC to keep it close? The model says one side hits 60 percent of the time.

With its first-round NCAA Tournament victory over Creighton, the Wildcats are 6-10 against the field of 68. While Kansas State had plenty of quality Big 12 wins, including over Texas twice, it lost by two to Arizona State and 66-47 at home to TCU.

UMBC, which has won nine of its last 10 games, finished second in the America East Conference at 12-4, three games behind Vermont. They played stiff competition out of conference, including SMU, Arizona and Maryland, but lost each game by double-digits. UMBC lost 83-39 to Albany in January.

Against the spread, Kansas State is 15-16 overall and 8-9 at away/neutral venues; it's also 7-8 ATS as the favorite. UMBC is 5-1 against the spread and 3-1 as an underdog. The Retrievers are 4-1 ATS at away/neutral sites.

So which side of the spread should you back for Kansas State vs. UMBC? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations, all from the proven computer model on a 5-1 college basketball run.