UMBC vs. Vermont odds, predictions: Computer model on 15-9 run picks America East final

One team will punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament when a full day of college hoops action tips off at 11 a.m. ET on Saturday with the America East title game between the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and Vermont. Vermont is favored by 11.5 points, unchanged from the opening line.

Before making any kind of pick on this matchup of teams you probably haven't seen play, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

Last season, the model was an impressive 755-636-20 on A-rated picks, returning $6,529 to any $100 player who followed it. And with the NCAA Tournament just days away, it is heating up this year as well, entering this weekend on a strong 15-9 run on college basketball picks.

Now, it has simulated UMBC vs. Vermont 10,000 times and its picks and projections are in.

We can tell you the model is calling for Trae Bell-Haynes to lead Vermont with 13 points and Payton Henson to add 12. UMBC, meanwhile, gets 16 points from Jairus Lyles to lead all scorers.

But will that big performance be enough for UMBC to cover this big spread? The computer has locked in an extremely strong pick for one side of the spread, saying it hits in 65 percent of simulations. You can get that selection only over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account Vermont's strong 27-6 season and regular-season title in the America East Conference. The Catamounts are also no strangers to postseason success. They have six NCAA Tournament appearances, including one last year as a No. 13 seed.

This season's squad has played toe-to-toe with several power programs and lost to Kentucky by just four in the season opener. Vermont is powered by an elite defense that gives up fewer than 65 points per game.

But just because Vermont has had an impressive season doesn't mean it will be able to cover a double-digit spread.

The Retrievers of UMBC (23-10) also had a strong year, finishing second in the America East. They've been dominant so far in the conference tournament as well, winning every game by double-figures.

They'll need one of their best performances of the season, however, to have a shot at a surprise NCAA Tournament appearance because Vermont won the head-to-head matchup between these two teams, 81-53, earlier in the season. This will be a chance for UMBC, a program that has won seven of its eight games since that point, to show how far it's come.

So which side of Vermont-UMBC do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the point-spread pick that hits a whopping 65 percent of the time, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks.