UCF v Texas Tech
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Following a weekend free of major upsets from within the Big 12, the conference championship discussion has dwindled to four teams -- Texas Tech, BYU, Arizona State and Utah -- entering rivalry week. The Utes are in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion as well as a potential at-large nominee, but Utah's two losses to the Red Raiders and Cougars puts it on the wrong end of various league tiebreakers.

The primary conference question moving forward ahead of the committee's penultimate top 25 rankings next week is if the Big 12 will be a two-bid league or not. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire backed BYU's resume in the at-large discussion earlier this season after the Red Raiders' win over the Cougars, pounding the table for conference strength.

He skewered Notre Dame's placement in the playoff discussion without even mentioning the Fighting Irish.

"I have so much respect for BYU. I do," McGuire said. "I was really excited whenever they joined the Big 12 because I think that they carry a lot of weight and a lot of respect. I think that I have a lot of respect for them entering a conference and not playing an independent schedule like other people -- y'all already know who that is. 

"So, I have a lot of respect for that. I mean, they're earning their right just like everybody, but a couple of people in the nation, are earning their right through conference play and playing in some really tough places."

Tiebreakers explained

Here's the Big 12's tiebreaker procedure, enacted in 2024, that will be used in determining the two teams who play at AT&T Stadium in December in the event of a two-team tie for second:

  • A. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams. 
  • B. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams. 
  • C. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 
  • D. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule). 
  • E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins -- only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules shall not be included. 
  • F. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games. 
  • G. Coin toss 

If there are multi-team ties in the Big 12, which is a high-probability this season, the following procedure will be followed:

  • A. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams -- if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie). Also, if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker. 
  • B. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie. 
  • C. Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 
  • D. Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule) 
  • E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted.

Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1)

  • If Texas Tech beats West Virginia, the Red Raiders advance to the Big 12 Championship Game.
  • If Texas Tech loses to West Virginia, BYU beats UCF and Arizona State beats Arizona, the Red Raiders miss the Big 12 Championship Game since they lost to the Sun Devils earlier this season and would earn the tiebreaker.

BYU (10-1, 7-1)

  • If BYU beats UCF, the Cougars advance to the Big 12 Championship Game.
  • If BYU loses to UCF, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Arizona State beats Arizona and Kansas beats Utah, the Cougars miss the Big 12 Championship Game because the Sun Devils beat the Red Raiders earlier this season and would earn a common-opponent tiebreaker.

Arizona State (8-3, 6-2)

  • If Arizona State beats Arizona, BYU beats UCF, Texas Tech loses to West Virginia and Utah loses to Kansas, the Sun Devils advance to the Big 12 Championship Game due to a tiebreaker.
  • If Arizona State beats Arizona, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, BYU loses to UCF and Utah loses to Kansas, the Sun Devils advance to the Big 12 Championship Game due to a tiebreaker.
  • If Arizona State beats Arizona, BYU beats UCF, Texas Tech loses to West Virginia and Utah beats Kansas, the Sun Devils miss the Big 12 Championship Game due to a tiebreaker.
  • If Arizona State loses to Arizona, the Sun Devils miss the Big 12 Championship Game.

Utah (9-2, 6-2)

  • If Utah beats Kansas, Arizona State beats Arizona, BYU beats UCF and Texas Tech loses to West Virginia, the Utes advance to the Big 12 Championship Game due to a tiebreaker over Arizona State.