2025 College Football Playoff first-round odds, prediction: Texas A&M vs. Miami picks by proven expert

The 10th-ranked Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes face the seventh-ranked Texas A&M Aggies in a first-round 2025 College Football Playoff matchup on Saturday. Miami finished its season with a 38-7 win at Pittsburgh on Nov. 29, while Texas A&M dropped a 27-17 decision at Texas on Nov. 28. Miami (10-2), who finished tied with four other teams for second in the ACC at 6-2, have won four games in a row. The Aggies (11-1), who tied for first with three other teams in the SEC at 7-1, have outscored their opponents by 173 points.

Kickoff from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, is set for noon ET. The Aggies are 3-point favorites in the latest Miami vs. Texas A&M odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 48.5. Before making any Texas A&M vs. Miami picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine expert, Matt Severance, has to say. 

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Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He enters the weekend as SportsLine's No. 1 college football expert as he's on a 62-39-1 run, returning $1,126 to $100 players. Anyone who has followed him could be way up. 

Now Severance has set his sights on Miami vs. Texas A&M and just locked in his picks and CFP predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Severance's picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Miami vs. Texas A&M:

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Why Texas A&M can cover

Sophomore Marcel Reed helps lead the Aggies' attack. In 12 games, the dual-threat quarterback has completed 61.8% of his passes for 2,932 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He has also rushed 89 times for 466 yards (5.2 average) and six touchdowns. In a 49-25 win at LSU on Oct. 25, he completed 12 of 21 passes for 202 yards, while rushing 13 times for 108 yards and two touchdowns.

His top weapon in the passing game is junior wide receiver KC Concepcion. In 12 games, he has 57 receptions for 886 yards (15.5 average) and nine touchdowns. He has also rushed eight times for 63 yards (7.9 average) and one touchdown. In a 31-9 win over Mississippi State on Oct. 4, he caught four passes for 61 yards and two scores. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Miami can cover 

Senior quarterback Carson Beck powers the Hurricanes' offense. He has completed 74.7% of his passes for 3,072 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and a 165.8 rating. He has also rushed for one score. In the win over Pittsburgh, he completed 23 of 29 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. He completed 27 of 32 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-17 win at Virginia Tech on Nov. 22.

Miami's top wide receiver is freshman Malachi Toney. In 12 games, he has 84 receptions for 970 yards and seven touchdowns. He has also rushed 17 times for 89 yards and a score. In the win over Pittsburgh, he caught 13 passes for 126 yards and one touchdown. He had 12 receptions for 146 yards and one score in the win at Virginia Tech. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Miami vs. Texas A&M picks

Severance is leaning Under on the total (48.5 points). He's also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can see what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Miami vs. Texas A&M, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to find out, all from the top-ranked expert who is on a 62-39 roll on college football picks.