2026 CFP National Championship best bets: Texas A&M, Michigan among five top early plays

Early College Football Playoff national championship odds for 2026 are out, and there is value to be found beyond the obvious favorites.

Transfer portal additions, roster attrition and schedule favorability are arguably the three most important factors in earning a spot in the playoff bracket. Most of the 12 teams included in the 2025 playoff field -- including national champion Indiana -- appear well positioned to return, but there is also value among several programs that missed the field this fall, along with a pair that could reemerge.

Based on intel gathered from this month's movement within respective two-deeps and a predictive look at scheduling, here are five teams listed at +650 or longer to win the national championship next season that are worth a flyer.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Notre Dame (+650)

2026 Schedule: Wisconsin (Green Bay), Rice, Michigan State, at Purdue, at North Carolina, Navy (Foxborough, Massachusetts), SMU, at Syracuse, Stanford, at BYU, Miami, Boston College

Why there's value: Finishing inside the top 12 next season guarantees Notre Dame a spot in the CFP, eliminating any bubble concerns if the team performs against quality opponents. The schedule is arguably the most favorable of Marcus Freeman's tenure, with only three true road games -- Syracuse, Purdue and North Carolina -- and neutral-site matchups against Wisconsin and Navy. Miami, SMU and BYU are the only squads currently ranked in our way-too-early top 25, and the Fighting Irish should out-talent nearly every opponent on their slate.

Early prediction: Co-frontrunners with Ohio State, Notre Dame will bring a small but elite portal class into spring practice, carrying a chip on its shoulder. The Fighting Irish upgraded the wide receiver room for returning quarterback C.J. Carr, who improved steadily during his freshman season and ended the campaign on a 10-game winning streak. If the running game remains productive after losing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, Notre Dame's chances at a top seed are high.

Texas (+750)

2026 schedule: Texas State, Ohio State, UTSA, at Tennessee, Oklahoma (Dallas), Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri, at LSU, Arkansas, at Texas A&M

Why there's value: The Longhorns are due. Texas invests heavily in roster enhancements, and the program is going all-in on its 2026 depth chart to give Steve Sarkisian a chance to return the team to a College Football Playoff semifinal and beyond with Arch Manning at quarterback. The addition of top portal wideout Cam Coleman and NC State running back Hollywood Smothers, whom Texas lured away from Alabama, strengthens the roster. Pairing star edge rusher Colin Simmons with former Pitt linebacker Rasheem Biles gives Texas a duo reminiscent of Ohio State's Arvell Reese-Caleb Downs combination in 2025.

Early prediction: As with any elite SEC program, Texas will need to prove itself at the top of the polls in 2026. A win over Ohio State at home in September, a rematch of last year's opener, could clarify the Longhorns' playoff path. Late-season trips to LSU and Texas A&M will further determine where Texas stands in Arch Manning's final campaign.

Oregon (+950)

2026 schedule: Boise State, at Oklahoma State, Portland State, at Illinois, at Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern, UCLA, Washington, at Ohio State, at USC

Why there's value: Oregon could have been an even more attractive national title pick had futures been available after their season-ending loss to Indiana. Many assumed quarterback Dante Moore would enter the 2026 NFL Draft, but his return will help ease the transition to a new offensive coordinator. If the Ducks are able to sign five-star transfer tackle Jordan Seaton in the coming days, their offensive line could become a major strength.

Early prediction: How quickly Dan Lanning's program adjusts to a pair of first-year coordinators will be crucial. A playoff appearance is now the standard at Oregon, reflecting Lanning's recruiting prowess and gameday dominance -- but it also brings pressure. Thankfully, Indiana is not on the schedule. The Ducks won't face Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers again until at least the postseason, giving +950 futures players reason for optimism and a potential hedge.

Texas A&M (+1500)

2026 schedule: Missouri State, Arizona State, Kentucky, at LSU, Arkansas, at Missouri, The Citadel, at Alabama, at South Carolina, Tennessee, at Oklahoma, Texas

Why there's value: Buy low, sell high. That's where Texas A&M sits. Quarterback Marcel Reed threw for a career-high 3,192 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first full season as the Aggies' starter, keeping the program unbeaten into rivalry weekend. Add Rueben Owens in the backfield, Mario Craver as an over-the-middle target and a portal-enriched defense, and Texas A&M looks more attractive than LSU or Alabama comparatively.

Early prediction: Five offensive line starters must be replaced, and the Aggies will face at least four top-20 teams from our way-too-early top 25, but a competitive schedule could help when playoff selections are made. This will be a top-10 roster led by a quarterback who has overachieved in his first couple of seasons in College Station. Regressing to the mean is possible with challenging road games, but in terms of return on investment, Texas A&M has delivered in consecutive seasons.

Michigan (+4000)

2026 schedule: Western Michigan, Oklahoma, UTEP, at Rutgers, Iowa, at Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Penn State, at Oregon, UCLA, at Ohio State

Why there's value: Who else is taking the Wolverines under first-year coach Kyle Whittingham? There's enough early-season meat on the schedule to catch the selection committee's eye, notably a home date with Oklahoma. You're essentially buying stock in quarterback sophomore Bryce Underwood and new offensive coordinator Jason Beck. Beck's prolific Utah scheme should be even more potent in Ann Arbor with improved talent. Michigan may have hired Whittingham during a wild coaching cycle, but he's been a home run -- bringing immediate stability and, more importantly, renewed physical aggression at the line of scrimmage.

Early prediction: If you're looking for a long shot worth a small investment, this is your opportunity.