2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game odds, prediction: Miami vs. Indiana expert picks

A season which began in August will conclude on Monday with the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Indiana Hoosiers and Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes. The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) are seeking their first national title and aiming to become the third 16-0 team in the history of the sport. No. 10 Miami (13-2) is looking for its sixth national championship and hopes that playing on its home field proves to be the ultimate advantage. These programs have split their two previous matchups.

Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The Canes are the first team to play in a national title game in their home stadium in the BCS/CFP era. The Hoosiers are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Indiana vs. Miami odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Indiana is at -340 on the money line, with Miami priced at +270. Before making any Miami vs. Indiana picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine expert, Matt Severance, has to say. 

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Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He enters the 2026 CFP tile game as SportsLine's No. 1 college football expert as he's on a 69-43-1 run, returning $1,316 to $100 players. Anyone who has followed him could be way up. 

Now Severance has set his sights on Indiana vs. Miami and just locked in his picks and CFP predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Severance's picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Miami vs. Indiana:

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Why Indiana can cover

Recent history supports the Hoosiers as the favorite has covered in each of the last six national title games. This year, IU is 5-0 ATS versus ranked opponents, with each of those five coming against top-10 teams. On the field, Indiana is peerless, ranking second in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense, despite having the ninth-hardest strength of schedule. Heisman winner, and Miami native, Fernando Mendoza has more touchdown passes (8) than incompletions (5) during Indiana's CFP run, and he plays on the most disciplined team in college football. No team has a better turnover differential than the Hoosiers, who also average the fifth-fewest penalties per game in the country. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why Miami can cover 

In addition to having home-field advantage, Miami also has a spread edge with Carson Beck under center. He's both won and covered in nine straight versus ranked foes, while the Hurricanes are on a 7-0 ATS run against Top 25 teams. Miami has a pair of future first-round draft picks on its D-line as the Canes average the fourth-most sacks per game in FBS. That pass rush is a strength which plays into what's Indiana's biggest weakness. Mendoza has been under pressure recently as he's been sacked an average of 2.5 times over his last six games, following only going down 0.8 times over his first nine games. On the other hand, Beck should have plenty of time in the pocket as Miami allows the lowest pressure rate in the nation. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Miami vs. Indiana picks

Severance has analyzed Indiana vs. Miami and is leaning Under on the total. He's also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping on one side of the spread. You can see what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Miami vs. Indiana, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to find out, all from the top-ranked expert who is on a 69-43-1 roll (+1316) on college football picks.