chasecunninghamcbs.jpg
USATSI

The Tennessee Volunteers and fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will meet for the 104th time on Saturday in a key SEC crossover matchup. The Crimson Tide (6-1, 3-1), who won last year's showdown 48-17, have won the last 14 games in the series. The Volunteers (4-3, 2-2), who are coming off a hard-fought 31-26 loss to Ole Miss a week ago, have won two of their last three games. They have not beaten the Tide, however, since 2006.

Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., will be at 7 p.m. ET. Both teams have done a good job of forcing turnovers. Alabama is tied for 10th in the nation in turnover margin at plus-seven, while Tennessee is tied for 26th at plus-five. The Crimson Tide are favored by 25.5 points in the latest Alabama vs. Tennessee odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 68. Before making any Tennessee vs. Alabama picks, you need to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 8 of the 2021 season on a 22-9 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Alabama vs. Tennessee and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and trends for Tennessee vs. Alabama:  

  • Tennessee vs. Alabama spread: Alabama -25.5
  • Tennessee vs. Alabama over-under: 68 points
  • Tennessee vs. Alabama money line: Tennessee +1500, Alabama -4500
  • TEN: The Volunteers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a straight-up loss
  • ALA: The Crimson Tide are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite
Featured Game | Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Why Alabama can cover

The Crimson Tide have been known for their defense ever since coach Nick Saban arrived in 2007. Since that time, Alabama has held opponents to 10 or fewer points on 95 occasions, including 24 shutouts. Junior linebacker Henry To'oTo'o, a transfer from Tennessee, leads the Tide with 54 tackles, including 20 solo. He has also registered one sack for six yards and one pass breakup. In last week's win at Mississippi State, he made 13 tackles, including seven solo, with a sack.

Also anchoring the defense is sophomore linebacker Will Anderson Jr., who has a knack at finding the quarterback. He has registered 45 tackles, including 20 solo, with a team-high seven sacks for 55 yards. He has also broken up one pass. He dominated in last week's win, recording four sacks to go along with six tackles, five solo. He had a season-high nine tackles against No. 12 Ole Miss on Oct. 2 and against Miami in the season opener on Sept. 4.

Why Tennessee can cover

Despite that, the Crimson Tide are not a lock to cover the Tennessee vs. Alabama spread. That's because the Volunteers play an up-tempo brand of football. They are tied with Ole Miss for the national lead in plays per minute at 2.90. Tennessee also averages 1.5 points per minute, which ranks sixth in the FBS and second in the SEC. The Vols also average 75.71 offensive plays per game, which is second in the league and 16th in FBS.

Redshirt junior quarterback Hendon Hooker injured his leg in the final moments of last Saturday's loss to Ole Miss, and is considered day-to-day. The Vols are hopeful he'll be able to go, but if not, Tennessee will turn to junior Joe Milton III, a Michigan transfer who leads the nation in average depth of target at 15.1 yards. Hooker has completed 95 of 138 passes (68.8 percent) for 1,296 yards and 14 TDs. He has been picked off just once and has a rating of 179.8. Milton, meanwhile, has completed 21 of 45 (46.7 percent) for 255 yards and one TD.

How to make Tennessee vs. Alabama picks

The model says to go under the total since the teams combine for 66 points in the simulations. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can see which side to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. Tennessee? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model on a 22-9 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.