Auburn is coming off an 8-5 (4-4 SEC) campaign in 2011. That was a letdown coming off a national title in 2010, but certainly understandable after losing elite talent like QB Cam Newton and DT Nick Fairley.
There are many unknowns heading in 2012. RB Michael Dyer is gone, no starting QB has been named and there are new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Still, there are some constants for the Tigers. TE Philip Lutzenkirchen, DL Corey Lemonier, RB Onterio McCalebb and LB Daren Bates have all shown they can win big in the SEC.
Here's a look at the various scenarios that could unfold for the Tigers in 2012:
Best-case scenario: On paper, Auburn doesn't look like a team that will make a championship run. The same could've probably been said in 2010 though. If one of the QBs can establish himself (I'll predict Kiehl Frazier), the Tigers could make some noise in the West. They already got one fortunate break with Clemson superstar WR Sammy Watkins being suspended for the opening game against Auburn. They will likely be favored in every game except Georgia, Alabama, LSU and Arkansas. Hypothetically, the Tigers could take care of business and then pull one or two upsets and make it to the 10-win plateau.
Worst-case scenario: Of the eight games it could be favored in, Auburn might only be a slight favorite -- 7 points or less -- in four of them: at Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Clemson and at Mississippi State. Drop one or two of those, lose to Alabama, LSU, Arkansas and Georgia, and Auburn is sitting right around .500. This scenario would only happen if neither QB steps up and the defense doesn't progress from last year. The good news for the defense is there's almost nowhere to go but up after finishing No. 81 nationally in total defense in 2011.
Most-likely scenario: The defense shows modest improvement, Frazier is good, though inconsistent at QB, and the Tigers pull out eight regular-season wins with a chance to make it nine in the postseason. They will surprise a team like LSU or Arkansas at home, but they will fall to Mississippi State or Vanderbilt on the road.
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