B1G Time: More than just a trophy on the line for Ohio State, Indiana; Pat Fitzgerald set up for success

The matchup between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship is a fitting snapshot of modern college football.

On one side is defending national champion Ohio State, a program that has long been one of the Big Ten's most dominant forces through all its eras, alignments and memberships. It's the team that's supposed to be here, even if this is its first appearance in six years. And, ironically enough, it wouldn't have been there in 2020 if not for the Big Ten changing its rules during the COVID season and placing the Buckeyes in the game despite not meeting the qualification threshold.

The team it replaced that year? Indiana. The team that wasn't supposed to be there, and is never supposed to be there. In 2020, the Hoosiers rode the wave of a fluky season flipped upside down by a virus that led to cancellations, opt-outs and cardboard cutouts standing in for fans. Now it's 2025, and Indiana is the clearest example that "not supposed to be here" no longer applies in college football -- at least not in the way we've always understood it.

College football has always been an arms race, but the ammunition has changed. You're no longer spending millions strictly on facilities and shiny objects to lure the nation's best recruits. You're paying players directly. With freer spending, the first step to becoming a football powerhouse is simply choosing to spend the money. You hire the right coach, then spend even more on the best roster you can build.

Next thing you know, you're 12-0 and playing in a conference title game for the first time in school history. It's that easy!

Saturday is a classic matchup of old money vs. new, but the Big Ten title is only one thing at stake. Both teams are essentially guaranteed first-round byes in the College Football Playoff, but the winner will likely earn the No. 1 overall seed, while the loser could fall to No. 3 or even No. 4, making the road to a championship (theoretically) more difficult.

The Heisman Trophy could also be decided at Lucas Oil Stadium. As of now, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the favorite at FanDuel, with Ohio State's Julian Sayin close behind. 

The Heisman has changed its voting window to a 48-hour period beginning Saturday evening, just before kickoff. Recency bias has been an undeniable factor in award voting in recent years -- though the shortened window is still a welcome change. (Now, if only voters could list five names on the ballot.)

Sayin could be one win from overtaking Mendoza for the award. Mendoza could just as easily clinch it with a win. The next names on the board -- Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia and Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love -- won't play this weekend.

There's also validation at stake. Sure, Ohio State won the national title last year and beat Michigan last week. It doesn't need more validation, but going six seasons without a Big Ten title would still rankle plenty of people around the program -- especially since Michigan has won it three times in that span.

As for Indiana, the Hoosiers have already shattered expectations. They didn't just beat up on the bad teams. They went on the road and beat Oregon, Penn State and Iowa. They throttled Illinois after listening all offseason to talk about how Illinois was "this year's Indiana." They've proven doubters wrong again and again -- but they haven't beaten Ohio State.

That means some still don't believe the Hoosiers belong among the sport's elite. A win here, and a No. 1 seed in the CFP, would end that debate.

It's only one game, but there's far more on the line Saturday night than a conference title. I can't wait.

Thoughts on Pat Fitzgerald

Based on the reaction I've seen, this is a divisive one. I come down firmly on the side of believing it to be a great hire for Michigan State -- and for Pat Fitzgerald as well. Now, that guarantees nothing. I thought Luke Fickell was a tremendous move for Wisconsin, and that hasn't gone very well. There is so much that goes into success at any program that isn't solved simply by hiring a good coach.

That said, I do believe Fitzgerald has a good chance to be precisely what Michigan State needs. People will point to Fitzgerald's last few years at Northwestern as evidence he'd lost touch with how the sport works. I disagree.

Fitzgerald's Northwestern teams went 4-20 over his final two seasons in 2021 and 2022, including 2-16 in Big Ten play. But the records alone lack essential context.

In 2021, the NCAA allowed transfers immediate eligibility, sending the portal into overdrive. It was also a year after COVID granted every player another year of eligibility. Suddenly, every program was dipping into the portal to grab super seniors looking to cash in on an extra season -- or more.

Northwestern, like Stanford and other private schools with stricter admissions standards, wasn't able to participate in that rush the same way. While Northwestern's Big Ten peers were quickly upgrading their rosters, the Wildcats were dealing with a far more limited pool. They remained a program that needed to identify fits and develop players over years, not months.

Those limitations will not apply to Fitzgerald at Michigan State. He'll be able to recruit players he simply didn't have access to at Northwestern. Fitzgerald has been painted as unwilling to adapt; I happen to believe he was more unable than unwilling.

He's able now. It could prove beneficial to both Fitz and Michigan State.

Are points back?

The Big Ten has an old reputation of being the "three yards and a cloud of dust" conference, where games aren't won by scoring points, but instead by keeping your opponent from scoring them. There's plenty of good reason for this perception, but in recent years, things have been getting worse.

Big Ten games averaged 49.01 points per game in 2025. That's more than the 48.42 points that were scored last season, and a lot more than the 44.97 that were scored in 2023. That 2023 season was a low point following three straight seasons of decline.

The 49.01 points scored this year were the most scored in a Big Ten season since the COVID year saw 53.69 points per game. If we only want to look at seasons where every game was played and there were people in the stands, it's the highest-scoring since 2019, when there were 50.56 points scored.

What's the reason for the sudden recovery? I don't think it's that complicated. In 2024, the Big Ten added Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA. Over the last two seasons, those four have seen 49.32 points averaged in their Big Ten conference games. The average between the other 14 schools has been 48.54, so it's not all thanks to the conference's new West Wing, but they've certainly helped.

What might surprise you? The lowest-scoring games in the Big Ten the last two seasons have not been Iowa's. The Hawkeyes' average game has seen 44.89 points scored. That's more than both Michigan (43.61) and Ohio State (43.33). That's right, one of the most potent offenses in the country has played in lower-scoring games than the Iowa Hawkeyes, but that's a testament to how good the Ohio State defense has been.

Oh, and there's still one team seeing lower-scoring games in that time. It's Wisconsin at 39.22. The Badgers are the only Power Four team not to crack the 40-point-per-game mark the last two years. Oklahoma's their closest competition at 41.44.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers -- just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana: When I first saw the spread for this game, I had to do a bit of a double-take. It's too many points! Believe me, I know how good Ohio State is, and I'm fully aware that it's capable of winning this game impressively. But the spread doesn't give Indiana nearly enough credit, so even though I know Ohio State is 8-1 against the spread in Big Ten games this season, I'm still going with the Hoosiers to cover. Indiana +5.5

Last Week: 4-5
Season: 61-53