Week 11 of the college football season arrives with four teams still jockeying for two spots in the Big Ten Championship Game, which is set for Dec. 7 on. CBS. No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 6 Penn State and No. 8 Indiana will each be in action on Saturday, but it's possible their games could bring no clarity to the title race.
All four are double-digit favorites in home games, and barring an upset, the top of the conference standings could look quite similar next week. In fact, there are multiple scenarios in play that would require the Big Ten to use tiebreaker procedures to determine who plays in the championship game.
Among the potentially complicated possibilities is a four-way tie for first. That scenario would require Oregon to suffer a loss in one of its final three games require and Ohio State to beat Indiana. It would also require Penn State to win its final four games.
While it's improbable, that outcome would mean that two teams with 8-1 conference records end up on the outside-looking-in for the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Before we get into the possible Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 11, here's a rundown of how ties will be settled.
- The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
- The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
- The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
- The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
- The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.
Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios
Four-way tie for first
One chaos scenario involves Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana each concluding the regular season with one conference loss and records of 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten). It would require:
- Oregon to lose one game in November (vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington)
- Ohio State winning out (vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern, vs. Indiana, vs. Michigan)
- Indiana winning two of its final three (vs. Michigan, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue) with the one loss coming against Ohio State
- Penn State winning out (vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, vs. Maryland)
In that case, the first tiebreaker among the four teams would be head-to-head record among the tied teams. As a result, Oregon would take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game since they would have the following records in head-to-head play:
- Oregon: 1-0 (win over Ohio State)
- Ohio State: 2-1 (wins over Indiana/Penn State and a loss to Oregon)
- Penn State: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
- Indiana: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
Three-way tie for second
If Oregon wins out, which seems likely given the level of competition it faces over the next three games, the Ducks would be 9-0 in conference action and in the Big Ten Championship Game with no questions asked. In that case, there could still be a three-way tie for second between Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana. How?
- Oregon wins out (vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington)
- Ohio State wins out (vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern, vs. Indiana, vs. Michigan)
- Indiana wins two of its final three (vs. Michigan, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue) with the one loss coming against Ohio State
- Penn State winning out (vs. Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, vs. Maryland)
Yet again, this scenario yields a Big Ten Championship Game between Ohio State and Oregon as the Buckeyes would have head-to-head tiebreakers on Penn State and Indiana.
- Ohio State: 2-0 (wins over Indiana/Penn State)
- Penn State: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
- Indiana: 0-1 (loss to Ohio State)
Two-way tie for second
Now that we've established how a one-loss Ohio State team would own a tiebreaker scenario with Indiana and Penn State, let's visit a scenario in which Ohio State takes a loss in one of its final four games. It would mark the Buckeyes' second defeat in conference and would likely eliminate them from contention to reach the title game. This scenario creates potentially complicated tiebreaker between Indiana and Penn State for a spot against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. How?
- Oregon wins out
- Ohio State suffers a loss and finishes 7-2 in league play
- Indiana suffers a loss and finishes 8-1 in league play
- Penn State wins its final four games and finishes 8-1 in league play
In this scenario, there would be no head-to-head matchups to draw upon for settling the tie between the Nittany Lions and the Hoosiers. Thus, the next tiebreaker would be to compare their records against common conference opponents.
If Indiana lost to Michigan but defeated Ohio State, the Hoosiers would get the nod over Penn State. How?
iIs record against shared opponents with Penn State would be 4-0 (wins over UCLA, Ohio State, Washington and Purdue). Penn State's record against that group would be just 3-1 because of its loss to Ohio State.
However, if Indiana lost to Ohio State and beat Michigan, then the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions would each be 3-1 against common league foes. Then, it would likely come down to the the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
Entering Week 11, the cumulative conference winning percentage of all Penn State's conference opponents is 44.7%. The cumulative conference winning percentage of all Indiana's opponents is 37.3%. Thus, Penn State would likely own the tiebreaker scenario over Indiana in that specific variation of a two-way tie for second.
Clean scenario
There is still a clean scenario that would mitigate the need for any tiebreakers.
Clean scenario: Oregon vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game
- Oregon wins out
- Indiana wins out
Big Ten contender résumés
Oregon (6-0)
Wins: UCLA (2-4), Michigan State (2-4), Ohio State (4-1), Purdue (0-5), Illinois (3-3), Michigan (3-3)
Remaining: Maryland (1-4), Wisconsin (3-3), Washington (3-3)
Indiana (6-0)
Wins: UCLA (2-4), Maryland (1-4), Northwestern (2-4), Nebraska (2-4), Washington (3-3), Michigan State (2-4)
Remaining: Michigan (3-3), Ohio State (4-1), Purdue (0-5)
Ohio State (4-1)
Wins: Michigan State (2-4), Iowa (4-2), Nebraska (2-4), Penn State (4-1)
Loss: Oregon (6-0)
Remaining: Purdue (0-5), Northwestern (2-4), Indiana (6-0), Michigan (3-3)
Penn State (4-1)
Wins: Illinois (3-3), UCLA (2-4), USC (2-5), Wisconsin (3-3)
Loss: Ohio State (4-1)
Remaining: Washington (3-3), Purdue (0-5), Minnesota (4-2), Maryland (1-4)