Lopsided CFP semifinal loss to Indiana continues troubling rematch trend for Oregon coach Dan Lanning

Dan Lanning has a rematch problem.

Following Indiana's 38-3 win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day, coach Curt Cignetti made sure to say that it's tough to beat a good team twice in the postgame. It was a point he hammered for the next eight days through multiple interactions with the media ahead of his team's rematch against Oregon in the Peach Bowl.

After watching Cignetti's Hoosiers crush Oregon 56-22 in Atlanta, one begins to question whether Cignetti really believed it, or if he even should've. It's long been a cliche that it's hard to beat a good team once, and even more difficult to beat one twice, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Lanning's Oregon Ducks.

Indiana started with a pick-six of Dante Moore on the first snap of the game. D'Angelo Ponds, who intercepted the pass, seemed to have a better idea of where the ball was going than Moore or its intended target, Malik Benson. Things only got worse from there. The Hoosiers were up 35-7 at halftime, and it was 56-15 in the fourth quarter before Oregon scored a touchdown in the final seconds to finish 56-22.

If it felt familiar, it's because it was.

Last year, Oregon beat Ohio State 32-31 in mid-October at Autzen Stadium. It was one of the best college football games of the 2024 regular season, if not the best. Everybody was excited to see the rematch between the two in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal. The excitement didn't last long for anybody not rooting for Ohio State. The Buckeyes were up 14-0 halfway through the first quarter and would extend that lead to 34-0 before Oregon scored a touchdown on the final play of the first half to cut the deficit to 34-8.

Combine last year's Rose Bowl with this year's Peach Bowl, and Oregon has trailed 69-15 at halftime of its last two rematches. The difference was that Ohio State mostly called off the dogs in the second half of the Rose Bowl, and Curt Cignetti lost the dogs' phone number years ago, if he ever had it at all.

Now, in Oregon's defense, that Ohio State went on to win the whole damn thing last year. The Indiana team that beat it this year crushed Alabama last week and has dismantled highly-ranked teams all season long. If it blows the doors off Miami to win a national title next week, nobody will be all that surprised.

But Oregon is a program that considers itself a title contender, too. Even if Ohio State and Indiana are both national champions, the Ducks should trail the two by 26 and 28 points, respectively, at halftime.

Also, let's not forget what happened in 2023. Oregon, still in the Pac-12, lost to rival Washington 36-33 in Seattle in mid-October. It then faced the Huskies again, at a neutral site, for the Pac-12 Championship. It lost that rematch, too. It was much closer than either of its playoff rematches -- but horseshoes and hand grenades, right?

Lanning has been at Oregon for four seasons, and he's done a tremendous job. Including this Peach Bowl loss, he is 48-8 with the Ducks, but three of those eight losses have come in rematches, and he's yet to win one.

If all three were close, I'd happily dismiss it as a small sample size and possible bad luck. But the blowout fashion of the last two is concerning. It seems to me Oregon's opponents are learning more from the first game -- and making better adjustments. It's either that or Oregon isn't adjusting at all, which makes the rematch far easier for its opponent.

I don't know what it is, but I don't have to. Lanning should probably figure it out soon, though.