Just because a coach enters the season on our list of hottest seats in college football doesn't mean he is completely doomed. Louisiana Tech's Sonny Cumbie owned the single hottest seat in the country heading into last season, and he responded with eight wins, living to coach another year. Brent Venables sat right behind him, and instead of getting run out of Norman, he steered Oklahoma into the College Football Playoff.
But not everyone gets that kind of turnaround story. Trent Dilfer, Hugh Freeze, Mike Gundy, Sam Pittman and Brent Pry were all in similarly rough spots last summer, and by season's end, all five were fired.
This year's group of coaches on the hottest seats is noticeably smaller than in years past, which cuts both ways when it comes time to answer the two big questions: Who is most likely to get fired first? And who is most likely to climb off the hot seat?
Most likely to get fired first
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Let's be honest, Norvell probably should have been fired last December. A 5-7 finish, on the heels of a 2-10 disaster the year before, left Florida State bowl-less for the second straight season. It's a stunning collapse for a program that went 13-0 and won the ACC just two years earlier. But Norvell was only two seasons into the extension Florida State handed him after that 2023 run. Firing him after 2025 would have cost roughly $58.4 million, a figure that only drops to an estimated $45.6 million once this season ends.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Seminoles' win total set at 6.5, with the juice on the under. Realistically, they could start 1-2 with losses to SMU on Labor Day and at Alabama following a bye. Then comes the murderer's row of ACC contenders in October, starting with Virginia, Louisville, Miami, and finally Clemson on Halloween.
Florida State once again turned to the transfer portal to patch holes, bringing in more than 20 newcomers, but this roster doesn't exactly scream "bounce-back season." The offense returns just two starters, while quarterback Ashton Daniels arrives after two previous stops without looking like the quarterback capable of reversing Florida State's fortunes. The Seminoles are once again counting on a collection of transfers to gel quickly against the toughest schedule in the ACC.
Norvell is also taking back play-calling duties after handing them off to Gus Malzahn last season. While he oversaw Florida State's explosive offenses during the 2022 and 2023 resurgence, reclaiming the headset feels like a last-ditch effort to save his job.
So, how long of a leash does Norvell actually get? Long enough to burn through the buyout math, apparently, but not much further. Norvell probably won't make it to November.
Despite the pressure, Norvell insisted during ACC spring meetings back in May that he expects 2026 to be "the best year of my life," saying the adversity of the past two seasons in Tallahassee has made him a better coach. That's certainly one way to look at it.
But if Florida State stumbles through another disappointing season, 2026 still might end up being the best year of his life, especially when that buyout check clears.
Most likely to climb off the hot seat
Lincoln Riley, USC
I called my shot on this one back in February. In our initial 2026 bold predictions for every team in the way-too-early top 25, I said Riley would finally return to the College Football Playoff in Year 5 at USC. Nothing since then has talked me out of it.
Of the 10 voters in our panel, only two declined to give Riley a 4 ("start improving now") on the hot seat scale (I was one of those). Maybe I'm letting last year's progress cloud my judgment, but I don't think the Trojans are walking that back.
I might be higher on USC than most. I'll admit the schedule doesn't make that an easy case. The Trojans draw Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana in as tough a Big Ten slate as anyone will face this season. FanDuel has the Trojans' win total at 8.5 with juice on the under as well.
But USC spent most of last season knocking on the door, finishing 7-2 in the Big Ten, and the pieces are in place for a real breakthrough this time around.
Start with continuity. USC leads the FBS with 15 returning starters and ranks 10th nationally in percentage of returning snaps. Quarterback Jayden Maiava heads into his second season as the full-time starter and under-the-radar Heisman Trophy buzz. Add in the No. 1 overall-ranked recruiting class with players who look ready to contribute right away, and USC has both the experience and the fresh talent to make a jump.
The defense still has to prove it can hold up against the Big Ten's best, but handing the keys to Gary Patterson should help settle a unit that has too often looked lost.
The continuity, the quarterback, the recruiting momentum and a defensive mind with Patterson's track record all point toward Riley climbing off this hot seat list next year.
