College football line movements for Week 12, including No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia

The two teams that represented the SEC in the conference's title game face off for the third time in 13 months on Saturday when No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs hosts No. 10 Texas Longhorns in a massive conference matchup at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.

The Bulldogs got the upper hand on the Longhorns twice last year, winning 30-15 on Oct. 19 in Austin and then 22-19 in overtime in the SEC title game. Neither team can afford a loss on Saturday if they want to make the conference championship game this year. Georgia (8-1, 6-1 in SEC) already has lost to Alabama, while Texas (7-2, 4-1) has lost to Florida. 

In addition, the loser of Saturday's game will be in danger of missing the College Football Playoff. 

Bet college football Week 12, including Texas at Georgia, at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and three months of NBA League Pass. Click here to sign up:

Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning will start for the first time against the team he rejected in favor of Texas. In June 2022, the latest quarterback in the Manning family committed to the Longhorns, picking them over the Bulldogs and, to a lesser extent, Alabama. That decision comes full circle on Saturday.

Top sportsbooks have made Georgia a 5.5-point favorite over Texas. The line has rose up to -6.5 after opening at -5, but it now sits at -4.5 as of Saturday afternoon. 

So what should you make of all that line movement? Here's a look at the Georgia-Texas point spread, as well as the line movement on the other three matchups featuring two teams in the CFP rankings and one other game with a big line change. All times Eastern.

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (noon)

Open: Notre Dame -11 
Current: Notre Dame -12.5

The line movement in favor of the Fighting Irish makes a lot of sense. They are on a roll, having won seven consecutive games by 26.1 points per game. They also are in the conversation for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff, so style points are important to them, which can explain some of this money coming in on Notre Dame. Also, the Panthers have struggled to run the ball this year (104th in the country, at 124.2 yards per game), which eliminates one of the ways the Irish defense can be had.

Bet Week 12 college football games at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets. Click here:

Texas State at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Southern Miss -7 
Current: Southern Miss -3

This game features the biggest line movement of any of the Week 12 games, and there's an easy explanation: Golden Eagles quarterback Braylon Braxton left last week's game with a right knee injury but returned to throw what would end up becoming the game-winning touchdown pass. Braxton, the Sun Belt Conference preseason Offensive Player of the Year, is listed as probable for Saturday's game, but bettors don't seem to be believers. Southern Miss (7-2, 5-0), which is on a collision course to play James Madison in the conference title game, has much bigger games remaining. The Bobcats (3-6) are winless in conference.

No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m.)

Open: USC -5 
Current: USC -6.5

This line touched Trojans -7 briefly before dropping back down to below a touchdown. USC welcomes another Big Ten team from the midwest to the Coliseum, and the Trojans have excelled in those situations this season. They have clobbered Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13) and Northwestern (38-17) in L.A. this year. If the Hawkeyes fall behind early, this game could have a similar result.

Bet college football at Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boost tokens. Click here to get started:

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m.)

Open: Alabama -6.5 
Current: Alabama -6.5

This line opened at some spots at Crimson Tide -7.5 but has fallen to less than a touchdown. It opened at -6.5, went down to -6 and has since settled back at -6.5 as of Saturday afternoon. 

It initially seemed to be an overreaction to the Sooners' 33-27 victory last week at No. 14 Tennessee, but I have to admit that I haven't had a good read on Oklahoma this season. While the Sooners' defense has been elite, the offense has been average at best, ranking 64th in the country in scoring offense (28.9 points per game) and 77th in total offense (373.7 yards per game). That offense will face an Alabama defense coming off its best game of the year, giving up just three field goals to LSU.

No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m.)

Open: Georgia -5 
Current: Georgia -4.5

This one has seen some major movement over the last few days, opening at -5, shooting up to -6.5 and settling at -4.5 as of Saturday afternoon. It makes sense that this one has seen plenty of betting action throughout the week as it's a massive SEC clash with huge CFP implications for each team. 

Are bettors back on the Texas bandwagon after its victory over Vanderbilt? Maybe so, as Manning has played his best football of the year over the last few weeks to keep Texas in the CFP conversation as a two-loss squad. 

The Bulldogs have won every game besides their loss to Alabama, but Georgia has played more close games than we're used to seeing from Kirby Smart's squad, beating Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee by one score and not looking quite as dominant as usual. Georgia will also again be without Colbie Young, who's second on the team in receptions and receiving yards this season. He hasn't played since Oct. 18 against Ole Miss. 

Some things to keep in mind here are that Georgia is 35-1 at home over its last 36 games in Athens and Texas is 2-2 in true road games this season, losing at Ohio State and Florida and needing overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State.