Five teams in the AP Top 25 are off this week and half of the others are playing on the road. That could make for an interesting week of football.
There are only two ranked-on-ranked games this week, but they are huge games in the SEC and will impact both the conference race and the College Football Playoff prospects of those teams.
It's the third Saturday in October and that means that seventh-ranked Alabama and No. 11 Tennessee are facing off, this time in Knoxville. Both teams already have a regrettable loss in conference play and the loser in this one will need some help to get to the SEC title game. Also, the loser's margin for error for making the CFP will likely be gone.
No. 5 Georgia will pay a visit to top-ranked Texas on Saturday night looking to close the gap on the Longhorns in the SEC race. The Bulldogs also face the possibility of a second conference loss, which will make getting to the conference championship game difficult. However, because Georgia's two losses would be at Alabama and at Texas, they are not quite as damaged as the loser of the Alabama-Tennessee game will be.
If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs stake a claim for No. 2 in the polls next week behind Oregon, should the Ducks somehow manage to knock off Purdue. Also, they are in a good place in the SEC title chase and the CFP bye that goes to the conference champion.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the sports betting weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog at BetMGM that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we are into October, I have expanded the Other CFP candidates list to the top 16 teams in the AP poll.
Games against FCS opponents are not considered.
This week's picks include a team that is becoming a staple here. Also, I am going for a third correct upset pick in a row.
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Week 8 picks
No. 2 Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue, Friday: With Oregon coming off a big win last week, this seems like a perfect setup for Purdue to become the Spoilermakers, but despite a 46-point outburst after halftime at Illinois, this team does not seem to have it in them. Statistically, the Boilers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Even if Oregon is a little flat after last week's victory over Ohio State, it should be the fourth team this season to put up 50 on the Purdue defense. It will be asking a lot of a revived Boilermaker offense, for a half anyway, to keep up. Pick Oregon -27.5
UCF at No. 9 Iowa State (-13.5): The Knights are in the midst of a three-game losing streak as they head to Ames and it is unlikely to end there. Iowa State has been rolling this season with only the one-point win at Iowa coming by a single-digit margin. Look for the Cyclones defense to smother UCF and Iowa State to get another comfortable win. Pick: Iowa State -13.5
Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU (-9.5), Friday: BYU has been one of the more pleasant surprises this season. Picked in the bottom four in the Big 12 preseason poll, the Cougars now sit at the top of the conference with Iowa State and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, one of the league favorites, are still looking for their first conference win. BYU has been putting up big numbers at home, and should be able to cover this spread. Pick: BYU -9.5
Upset of the Week
UNLV (-7) at Oregon State: Oregon State should get running back Jam Griffin back this week after missing the loss at Nevada last week. UNLV is off to an impressive 5-1 start but has yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Beavers like to wear teams down with their running game and if the Rebels can't take that away, it could be a long afternoon. I like Oregon State to at least cover, but I believe it will send their Homecoming crowd home happy. Pick: Oregon State
Other CFP contenders
- No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (-4.5) Pick: Texas -4.5
- No. 6 Miami (-4.5) at Louisville Pick: Louisville +4.5
- No. 7 Alabama (-3) at No. 11 Tennessee Pick: Alabama -3
- No. 8 LSU (-3) at Arkansas Pick: LSU -3
- Virginia at No. 10 Clemson (-21.5) Pick: Clemson -21.5
- No. 12 Notre Dame (-11.5) at Georgia Tech Pick: Georgia Tech +11.5
- No. 14 Texas A&M (-14.5) at Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State +14.5
- Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana (-6.5) Pick: Nebraska +6.5
SportsLine's proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 8 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.
