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All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLine consensus
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Florida at No. 14 Utah, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
- The Pick: Under 44 (-110)
- Key Trend: The under went 4-3 last week thanks in part to new clock rules, and it's a trend that could continue this week.
It's one of the biggest games of the week and one of the most difficult to break down. The status of Utah quarterback Cam Rising hasn't been made official, but the vibes coming out of Salt Lake City suggest he will not be playing in the game. That's a significant blow for the two-time Pac-12 champion Utes, as he's a talented and experienced player in the most important position.
At the same time, I don't know what to fully make of the Gators in 2023. They went 6-7 last year, losing their final three games despite having Anthony Richardson, who went fourth overall in the NFL Draft, at QB. If Florida struggled to win more games than it lost with Richardson, it's hard to foresee significant improvement when the team downgraded at the QB spot, bringing in Graham Mertz from Wisconsin.
Mertz's college career started with plenty of hype, as he was a highly-rated recruit and balled out in his debut during the 2020 season, but it's been a lot of "meh" since. Perhaps his safer approach to the position will play to Florida's benefit. If nothing else, I'd rather have a QB with his experience in a challenging environment like Rice-Eccles Stadium than a younger option.
With the QB questions for both teams, there's no simple path to determining how this one plays out, but I believe that no matter who wins, we won't see that many points. Neither offense is likely to feature explosive plays, and there's a high likelihood both coaches take a conservative approach tonight. Kyle Whittingham because he's missing his starting QB, and Billy Napier because of the tough environment.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has no strong feelings about this one, but there's no shortage of SportsLine's expert handicappers weighing in with their thoughts.
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💰The Picks
🏈 College football
NC State at UConn, 7:30 p.m | TV: CBS Sports Network
The Pick: NC State -14 (-110) -- While I typically celebrate perennial doormats having successful seasons out of nowhere, there are some truths about UConn's 6-7 finish last year that must be acknowledged. There was a fair bit of luck involved! UConn finished with six wins, but using postgame win expectancy, the Huskies were only expected to win 4.8 games. So, while there's a lot of experience returning, it's for a team that wasn't as good as its record suggests.
This year, UConn opens the season at home against an overlooked NC State team. I know the Wolfpack have a new offensive coordinator (Robert Anae) and a new quarterback (Brennan Armstrong), but I also know what happened the last time those two paired up at Virginia in 2021: Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns as the Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game. Combine that potential with a salty NC State defense, and I suspect this one could get lopsided quickly.
Nebraska at Minnesota, 8 p.m | TV: Fox
The Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) -- The most interesting aspect of this game is seeing how Nebraska will look with a competent coaching staff. It hasn't had one in a while, which has led to the Cornhuskers beating themselves a lot. Of course, while I'm expecting an upgrade on the sideline, I'm still not entirely sold on the roster quality. Playing on the road against a Minnesota squad that's been one of the most consistent programs in the Big Ten the last few years is a tough spot.
However, the Gophers have some questions themselves. The coaching staff is high on QB Athan Kaliakmanis' potential, but I'm more worried about the now. He played in 11 games last season and finished with more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three). So, the questions at QB, combined with Minnesota being a run-heavy offense with one of the country's more underrated defenses, leads me to believe this could be another low-scoring affair tonight.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Projection Model's favorite college football play tonight is in one of the games we haven't talked about. It has a healthy lean on the total between UCF and Kent State.