College Football Playoff bracket predictions: Simulation has surprising 2024 CFP picks, sleepers, upsets

SportsLine's advanced computer model has revealed its 2024-25 College Football Playoff bracket picks and predictions after 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Dec 20, 2024 at 10:23 am ET • 3 min read

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The 2024-25 College Football Playoff bracket is set, as 12 teams prepare to compete in the expanded playoff for the first time. No. 1 seed Oregon, No. 2 seed Georgia, No. 3 seed Boise State and No. 4 seed Arizona State each earned first-round byes, so they will wait for their respective quarterfinal matchups to be set. The first round features four on-campus games, beginning with No. 7 seed Notre Dame vs. No. 10 seed Indiana on Friday, Dec. 20. Notre Dame is a 6.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.

No. 6 seed Penn State (-8.5) hosts No. 11 seed SMU, No. 5 seed Texas (-12.5) faces No. 12 seed Clemson and No. 8 seed Ohio State (-7.5) plays No. 9 seed Tennessee on Saturday, Dec. 21. Oregon is the +350 favorite (risk $100 to win $350) to win the national championship, followed closely by Texas at +370. Who wins the national title, and what are the best bets for each game in the CFP bracket?

Before locking in any College Football Playoff bracket picks or national championship bets, be sure to see the latest College Football Playoff predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it went a profitable 43-34 on top-rated picks during the 2024 regular season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen impressive returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds and college football betting lines for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff Bracket. Head here to see every pick.

Top 2024-25 College Football Playoff Bracket picks

One team the model is high on for the College Football Playoff is No. 7 seed Notre Dame, who wins and covers against No. 10 seed Indiana before upsetting No. 2 seed Georgia in the quarterfinals. The Fighting Irish have been overlooked since their shocking loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2, but they own the best average margin of victory (26.3) in the country. They have beat all but one team by double digits during their current 10-game winning streak, so they are the second-hottest team behind Oregon entering the playoff.

Senior quarterback Riley Leonard has completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,092 yards and 16 touchdowns, while running back Jeremiyah Love has 949 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Indiana was blown out by Ohio State in its lone game against a ranked opponent this season, so the model has Notre Dame winning that game in more than 70% of simulations. The Fighting Irish then knock off No. 2 seed Georgia in the model's quarterfinal projections, creating value on Notre Dame (+700) to win the CFP. See the full College Football Playoff Bracket predictions here.

How to make College Football Playoff Bracket picks

The model has also simulated the rest of the College Football Playoff Bracket, and it's calling for a team outside the top five to make a stunning run to the title game. You can only get complete CFP Bracket picks at SportsLine.

So what College Football Playoff picks can you make with confidence, and which team outside the top five makes a shocking run to the title game? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams make deep runs, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit since its inception, and find out.