College Football Playoff: Expert ranks four remaining teams ahead of semifinals
SportsLine college football betting expert Thomas Casale ranks the four remaining teams ahead of the semifinal round
The final four is set in the College Football Playoff and it's not the teams most people were expecting. Here is how I rank the four teams based on their odds to win the National Championship heading into the semifinal matchups from FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. Indiana Hoosiers (+130)
There was a changing of the guard in the Rose Bowl. Nick Saban and Alabama dominated the college football world for 15 years, winning six national championships over that span. Now, Curt Cignetti looks like the new Saban after the Hoosiers physically embarrassed Alabama. Cignetti is just two wins away from bringing a national championship to Indiana in just his second season.
The Hoosiers are the best team left in the playoff and I don't think it's even debatable. Indiana has wins over Oregon, Ohio State and Alabama, all away from home. No other team in the country can match that resume.
The Hoosiers are the deserving favorite to win the National Championship at +130 and I would make them at least 3-point favorites over the other three teams in the field.
2. Miami Hurricanes (+340)
Miami is starting to remind me of last year's Ohio State squad that won the National Championship. The Buckeyes dropped a couple of games during the regular season but played their best football in the playoff.
Miami's defensive line has been the best unit in the playoff. The Hurricanes held Texas A&M and Ohio State to a combined 17 points in the first two games but now gets its toughest test taking on the red-hot Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss' offense.
Despite being the last team in the field, the Canes are 3.5-point favorites over Ole Miss. I think the game will come down to Miami's offense. Carson Beck has done a good job of not losing the first two playoff games. The Hurricanes rushed for 328 in wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, so Beck has been able to manage the game and avoid turnovers. Look for Miami to follow that blueprint against a Rebels' defense allowing 151 rushing yards per game this season.
If you want to make a title bet right now, Miami is the best value on the board. The Canes are the one team left that can match Indiana in the trenches if the two meet for the National Championship.
3. Ole Miss Rebels (+550)
I put Ole Miss third because the Rebels are still being undervalued after the loss of Lane Kiffin. After crushing Tulane and upsetting Georgia, it's obvious Kiffin's departure isn't having a negative impact on the team.
Remember, Ole Miss has one loss all season in a game it led most of the way at Georgia until the Bulldogs outscored the Rebels 17-0 in the fourth quarter. The Rebels also have an X-factor in Chambliss. We can talk about teams getting a first-round bye not being sharp after a long layoff, but I thought Georgia played really well. Chambliss was just the best player on the field, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns.
Sometimes things happen in sports that just can't be explained. It would be one heck of a story if Ole Miss wins a National Championship without Kiffin. I do think Miami-Ole Miss is a pretty even game on paper and if the Rebels win, I wouldn't bet against them in the National Championship.
I rate Ole Miss over Oregon because out of those two teams, I believe the Rebels have a better chance to pull the upset in the semifinals, so I see more value with them winning the title at +550.
4. Oregon Ducks (+310)
Oregon played its best game of the season in the quarterfinals against Texas Tech. Before that win, the Ducks' best victory was at home over USC. Despite the dominant performance, I still have questions about Oregon moving forward and I think the Ducks are a little overvalued at +310 to win the National Championship.
The Ducks get a rematch with Indiana in the semifinals. The teams met back in October with the Hoosiers winning at Oregon 30-20. The difference in that game was Indiana's defensive line. Indiana held Oregon to 20 points, 81 rushing yards and just 267 total yards. Quarterback Dante Moore struggled against the elite Indiana defense, finishing with 186 yards and two interceptions.
I expect a similar outcome on Friday. Both defenses are very good, although I give the Hoosiers an edge. Indiana ranks No. 1 in stuff rate (tackles behind the line of scrimmage) and if the Ducks can't run the football here, they will be in trouble. For all the talk about Moore being the top pick in the NFL Draft, he has never put up big numbers against a top defense. I trust Fernando Mendoza more to make plays late if the game is close.
I would make Miami a slight favorite over Oregon in the title game. If it were Ole Miss, I would make the line close to pick. Considering the Ducks have the toughest semifinals matchup, I don't like them being the second favorite to win the National Championship at +310.
