College Football Playoff race: How the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 championship games will impact final bracket

Conference championship games still matter. There was some handwringing when the still relatively new 12-team College Football Playoff format was announced that both the regular season and title games would be devalued. 

Neither has come to fruition thus far. Even after the College Football Playoff moved to a straight-seeding format for the 2025 season, it still preserved automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions -- adding even more motivation to win a title. 

There's another layer when you consider that the four highest-ranked teams get a first-round bye. To even be considered for a top-four seed in this era, it feels like a program has to at least make its conference's championship game. 

So, suffice to say, there's a lot on the line this championship weekend. Here's a look at what each title game means for the College Football Playoff and how it could affect the selection committee's process when it decides the final 12-team field Sunday afternoon. 

Power Four 

Big 12 Championship Game 

Texas Tech is in no matter what happens. The Red Raiders earned that with a largely dominant regular season effort. They won eight of their nine conference games by at least double digits. Texas Tech could sew up a first-round bye with a win. 

The same should be said of BYU but, unfortunately for the Cougars, that does not seem to be the case. They're firmly on the bubble in spite of the fact that their strength of record ranks sixth nationally and their strength of schedule compares favorably to other teams gunning for an at-large bid like Miami and Notre Dame. BYU's lone loss came against a top-five Texas Tech. Yet it's hard to see it making the 12-team field with any result besides winning the rematch against the Red Raiders. 

SEC Championship Game 

Like Texas Tech, Georgia is in the playoff regardless of what happens. And like Texas Tech, the Bulldogs could secure a top-four seed and a first-round bye by claiming their second consecutive SEC title. 

Alabama is probably in no matter what happens in Atlanta, but the Crimson Tide aren't a slam dunk. They're technically on the bubble after finishing the regular season with two losses, including an inexplicable defeat at the hands of Florida State. That's arguably the worst loss on record among at-large teams. The committee has not punished a conference championship game loser before -- see SMU last season -- but the only way Alabama can feel 100% positive about its outlook is to win Saturday. 

Big Ten Championship Game

Neither team in this one has to sweat making the playoff. In fact, outside of the obvious conference implications, there's a good chance that the Big Ten Championship Game result does not matter much unless one team wins in a landslide. Ohio State and Indiana are both 12-0. They're the No. 1 and No. 2 teams, respectively, in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are in good shape for a first-round bye. 

ACC Championship Game 

This game presents a potential disaster scenario for the ACC. The conference office may, quietly, be rooting for a Virginia win. The Cavaliers are in with a win. 

The ACC could get bounced from the playoff entirely if Duke, which backdoored its way into the title game after SMU lost to California, pulls off the upset. The Blue Devils are 7-5. Even at 8-5 with a Power Four conference title to their name, it's hard to justify putting them ahead of other teams -- including a couple of Group of Five programs -- that navigated their regular seasons largely unscathed. The ACC's best hope at that point would be Miami sneaking into an at-large bid. 

Group of Five 

Sun Belt Championship Game (Friday)

All eyes are on James Madison in this one. The Dukes have done everything they can by finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. Their lone loss came on the road against Louisville. They still need some help to make the cut. Obviously, they'll need to beat Troy and win the Sun Belt title. After that, the Dukes will be pulling for Duke in the ACC Championship Game. That result should make James Madison one of the five highest-ranked conference champions on Selection Sunday, unless the committee wants to shoehorn another Power Four team into the field. 

American Conference Championship Game (Friday) 

This one's pretty simple: win and you're in. The selection committee has made it clear all season long that it is going to value the American Conference above other Group of Five leagues. Tulane is the highest-ranked Group of Five school out there right now. But the Green Wave are not guaranteed a spot. North Texas, which enters the postseason with an 11-1 record, could easily supplant Tulane by capturing its first American championship. 

Who will win and cover in each conference championship game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 43-36 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.