Can we have a 12-team College Football Playoff without Alabama? Would that be a violation of federal law?
We may find out Tuesday night in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings release after the Crimson Tide took it on the chin at Oklahoma. That is their second loss of the season to a team that should not be beating Alabama. I didn't think any 9-3 teams would be able to qualify for the CFP, and maybe that's still the case. But would it shock you if Alabama was the exception?
Ole Miss also picked up its third loss of the season, leaving just Texas, Georgia and Tennessee with fewer than three losses. If there are only three SEC teams in the playoff, heads will roll. Figuratively, of course, but maybe there will be only three deserving teams. Every league has a down year once in a while.
The concept of a set number of teams from any given conference is fictional, though. There are no limits or minimums for the number of teams from any given league -- yet. The next iteration of this playoff structure will likely ensure minimums from the SEC and Big Ten, but that's a bridge we can cross when we come to it.
Before we get going with this week's rankings prediction, here are some of the things the College Football Playoff Selection Committee considers besides a team's record:
- Conference championships – This does not come into play until the final weekend, when those are determined.
- Head-to-head
- Games against common opponents
- Results against ranked opponents.
References to "rankings" refer to last week's CFP Rankings. It is the only one the committee uses when looking at performance against ranked teams, which is not necessarily a huge factor. If a team has enough of those games, it will be reflected in the strength of schedule.
Note: This projection is based only on results to this point. It does not reflect the final forecast for the playoff. The complete bowl playoff and bowl projections through the end of the season can be found here.
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction
| 1 |  |
| If there is a lock for the College Football Playoff, it's the Ducks. I define "lock" differently than most, however. For me, that means you're in even if you lost the rest of your games. With the chaos of this week, I do not see them falling out of the CFP even in the worst case of losing to Washington and then in the Big Ten Championship Game. Oregon currently has the third-best college football betting odds at +400 to win the CFP National Championship, according to Caesars Sportsbook. (Last week -- 1) | |
| 2 |  |
| Indiana hung around for a quarter before the Buckeyes turned on the jets and put the Hoosiers away in a 38-15 win. Ohio State is now 2-1 against top-five opponents, although IU will surely drop from that lofty height this week. The Buckeyes are a win over Michigan away from another shot at Oregon -- as if OSU needs extra motivation for that game. (2) | |
| 3 |  |
| The preliminaries are over for the Longhorns, and now they are on their way to College Station this week to face their old rival Texas A&M for a place in the SEC title game against Georgia. It has been 13 years since these two have faced off, and it's about time that game has returned. (3) | |
| 4 |  |
| The Nittany Lions needed all 60 minutes to get by Minnesota in a 26-25 win on Saturday, but I do not expect that to negatively impact their position in the rankings this week. Look for them to try to look more impressive in their home finale against Maryland. An Ohio State loss to Michigan could put PSU in the Big Ten title game. (4) | |
| 5 |  |
| Notre Dame crushed Army 49-14 to move to 10-1 on the season. That score is just two points less than the Fighting Irish win over Navy, which was 51-14. In each case, it was the service academy's first loss of the season. It is also Notre Dame's second- and third-best wins behind the season opener at Texas A&M. The Irish travel to LA this week to face longtime rival USC on Saturday to end the season. (6) | |
| 6 |  |
| The Hurricanes came off a bye week and wiped out Wake Forest 42-14. That should be good enough to hold their relative position to the other winners this week. They are at 8-3 Syracuse, which is among my first teams out of the rankings this week. (8) | |
| 7 |  |
| The Bulldogs may have benefitted from this week's chaos more than any other team. The losses by Alabama and Ole Miss not only knocked out the two teams to beat Georgia this season, but it also put the Bulldogs in the SEC title game. But first is the annual rivalry game with Georgia Tech. (10) | |
| 8 |  |
| Tennessee also caught a break this week. Now, it can be ranked ahead of Alabama, which the Volunteers defeated, and they would be ranked in a spot that puts them in the CFP. That is if nothing else unexpected happens. (11) | |
| 9 |  |
| If we learned anything about the Hoosiers last weekend, it's that they are not in Ohio State's weight class. To be fair, not many teams are. They have also shown to be significantly better than the lesser lights they have had on the rest of their schedule. The dimmest of those lights visits Indiana this week. Look for coach Curt Cignetti to try to send the committee a big message against Purdue. (5) | |
| 10 |  |
| The Broncos are done with conference play after a lackluster 17-13 win at Wyoming. They will host the Mountain West Championship Game in two weeks, but first, they host Oregon State. (12) | |
| 11 |  |
| The Mustangs clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game in their first season as a conference member. SMU won 33-7 at Virginia on Saturday and can complete an undefeated conference season with a win over Cal this weekend. The Mustangs will face either Clemson or Miami for the ACC title. (13) | |
| 12 |  |
| Alabama took its second loss of the season to an SEC also-ran, and this one was particularly ugly as Oklahoma took down the Crimson Tide 24-3. The last time Alabama lost this badly in the regular season was Nov. 15, 2003 in a 27-3 loss to LSU. The Tigers coach in that game was none other than Nick Saban. Alabama is going to need some help to get in the CFP now, if that is even possible. (7) | |
| 13 |  |
| The Sun Devils keep on rolling and now it looks like they control their own fate for the Big 12 title. It's kind of complicated, though. They just have to beat arch-rival Arizona though and they should get their shot. (21) | |
| 14 |  |
| The Rebels are done as a CFP contender after a 24-17 loss at Florida. They can take out some frustration on Mississippi State, but there does not seem to be a realistic path back to the playoff. (9) | |
| 15 |  |
| The Tigers have made their case for a spot in the ACC title game, but it is now out of their hands. They need a loss by Miami to get in to that game. A tough finisher is on deck, though, in in-state rival South Carolina, who has won five in a row after a rocky start. (17) | |
| 16 |  |
| The Gamecocks tuned up for the big game with Clemson with a win over Wofford. I'm not sure how that helps. A win over Clemson, though, would help put them in a more desirable bowl game. (18) | |
| 17 |  |
| BYU keeps sliding down the rankings, this time after a defeat at Arizona State. In two weeks, the Cougars have gone from a favorite to make the CFP to all but out of contention. There is still a chance to play for the Big 12 title, though. (14) | |
| 18 |  |
| The big game is finally here. The rivalry game with Texas has arrived and the stakes are pretty high with a spot in the SEC title game up for grabs. The Aggies have lost two straight conference games, but the only team to beat them at Kyle Field so far this season is Notre Dame. (15) | |
| 19 |  |
| The committee welcomed back Iowa State to the rankings last week and the Cyclones celebrated with a 31-28 win at Utah. They are in a good spot with the Big 12 tiebreakers but have to beat Kansas State before that matters. (22) | |
| 20 |  |
| The Green Wave celebrated clinching a spot in the AAC title game by taking the week off. They will get an early start on the festivities by taking on Memphis on Thursday night. Tulane is still in play for the fifth AQ spot among conference champion but need help with Boise State out in front. (20) | |
| 21 |  |
| After another week of winning a game it should win, the Tigers figure to climb a couple of spots. They have been 23rd for two straight weeks despite losing in between those rankings. (23) | |
| 22 |  |
| The Rebels got the help they needed with Colorado State and now control their own destiny to the Mountain West title game in Boise. Get by in-state rival Nevada and they can pack their bags for Boise. (24) | |
| 23 |  |
| The Illini won at Rutgers on a 40-yard touchdown pass with 4 seconds to go that was supposed to be a quick play to set up a field goal attempt. Illinois is in line for one of the Big Ten's Florida bowl games. (25) | |
| 24 |  |
| The Wildcats' win over Cincinnati ended a two-game winning streak and kept their conference title hopes alive. There are nine teams within one game of first place. Two of the teams that are a game back play each other, but there are scenarios for all nine teams that get them to the Big 12 championship game. Let's go chaos! (NR) | |
| 25 |  |
| Colorado became the third straight ranked team to go down to Kansas. The Jayhawks are not in contention for the conference title, but they are still leaving their footprints on the race. The Buffaloes have to beat last place Oklahoma State and hope for the best. (16) | |
Next out (alphabetical order): Army (19), Georgia Tech, Louisville, LSU, Syracuse
