For the final time this season, we are predicting what the top 25 of the final release of the College Football Playoff Rankings release will look like Sunday at noon ET.
Here, we try to emphasize the same criteria the CFP Selection Committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after.
With all of that in mind, here is how I think the final top four and rest of the top 25 will look.
1. Alabama (13-0): The Crimson Tide steamrolled the Gators to win the SEC. They were staying here anyway.
2. Clemson (12-1): The Tigers get the edge over Ohio State for uniform color in the CFP Semifinals. Their schedule is slightly weaker, but the extra win makes up for that.
3. Ohio State (11-1): The Buckeyes have the strongest schedule in the top 25, including road wins over Wisconsin and Oklahoma.
4. Washington (12-1): U-Dub's schedule is not quite at the level of the other playoff teams, but it is good enough to deserve the fourth playoff spot. You want Bama? You got them.
5. Michigan (10-2): The Wolverines didn't get the help they needed to move into the playoff.
6. Penn State (11-2): PSU came back from 21 points down to beat Wisconsin for the Big Ten championship. A remarkable season for the Nittany Lions will end in the Rose Bowl.
7. Oklahoma (10-2): The Sooners won the Big 12 by beating Oklahoma State. They will get a trip to New Orleans for their efforts.
8. Wisconsin (10-3): The Badgers blew a huge lead in the Big Ten title game and lost to Penn State. Playing Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl should soften the blow.
9. Colorado (10-3): The Buffaloes weren't the same after quarterback Sefo Liufau got hurt, even though the game didn't get away from them until he returned. This will be an interesting case for the CFP Selection Committee. They have yet to drop a team that lost its conference championship game to a higher rated team below another team in its conference in the rankings.
10. USC (9-3): Did not play. The Trojans are hoping to move above Colorado and get to the Rose Bowl.
11. Florida State (9-3): Did not play.
12. Oklahoma State (9-3): The Cowboys hung for a half with Oklahoma. The committee has had them ahead of West Virginia all year. No reason to expect anything different now.
13. Louisville (9-3): Did not play.
14. Auburn (8-4): Did not play.
15. West Virginia (10-2): The Mountaineers squeaked by Baylor to end the regular season.
16. Florida (8-4): The Gators got chomped up by Alabama, but why should they be any different? I don't think the committee will drop them below Western Michigan.
17. Western Michigan (13-0): The Broncos looked tight in an uneven performance against Ohio. Still, the MAC champions should see their undefeated season rewarded with a spot in the Cotton Bowl.
18. Stanford (9-3): Did not play.
19. Utah (8-4): Did not play.
20. LSU (7-4): Did not play.
21. Tennessee (8-4): Did not play.
22. Navy (9-3): The Midshipmen got punished at home by Temple in the AAC title game, costing them an outside shot at the Cotton Bowl.
23. Houston (9-3): Did not play.
24. Virginia Tech (9-4): The Hokies put up a fight, but lost the ACC title game to Clemson. I would not expect much of a drop for that.
25. Pittsburgh (8-4): Did not play.