What's the 2025 college football transfer portal going to look like when it opens on Monday, Dec. 9?
"An absolute s--t show," said one Big Ten general manager.
Honestly, what else is new?
This cycle is shaping up to be as wild and unpredictable as ever.
For starters, it's the first full cycle where every college football player -- from freshmen to graduates -- can transfer without restriction during the portal windows. And schools? They're trying to budget and sign players based on projected revenue-sharing figures that are still up in the air. Programs are working with estimated $12-million-plus budgets while waiting for the final approval of the House Settlement, a multi-billion-dollar agreement between the NCAA and former players, coming in April.
The settlement is also shaking things up with scholarship limits (bumping from 85 to 105) and trimming overall roster sizes (from 120 to 105).
But don't expect any of that to slow down player movement. Last cycle, more than 3,800 FBS players jumped into the portal, and this year will likely see a similar wave as teams retool their rosters.
The portal isn't just a fad any more, it's the blueprint for building competitive rosters. Every Power Four program except Clemson took at least four transfers last year, and over half brought in nine or more.
So how are teams gearing up?
247Sports surveyed 10 anonymous directors of player personnel, scouting directors, and general managers across the FBS -- eight from the Power Four and two from the Group of Five -- to get the inside scoop on how programs are approaching this chaotic cycle.
These staffers spoke candidly under the condition of anonymity, offering an unfiltered look at the transfer market and the challenges ahead. We gave them nicknames from Nos. 1 to 10.
Their insights cover everything from navigating revenue-sharing uncertainty to predicting the quarterback market's next moves. You can read the full survey on 247Sports, which is currently offering an annual subscription marked down to 75% off through Dec. 2, but here's a sneak peek at their thoughts on the ever-polarizing QB market, which has been a mix of home runs and misses in recent years. Currently, there are no ace QB transfers on the market. The top-rated players, for now, are Matthew Sluka (UNLV) and Thomas Castellanos (Boston College). Each sport ratings in the high-80s, which means by the time the cycle fully matures, they will be outside the likely top 25 realm of quarterback transfers.
(Note: Quotes have been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.)
What will the QB market look like?
FBS Staffer 2: "I think it's super down. Part of it has to do with getting out of the COVID era. The sixth-year starters aren't as many anymore.
"From everything I've heard, it's going to be a little bit down this year. Maybe that has to do with the fact the bulk of starting quarterbacks have already transferred and people are a little tired of it."
FBS Staffer 3: "The lack of super seniors will likely lead to less one-year-fix-it strategies at the position. Recruiting and developing your high school signees at QB will be more important because there may not be that veteran in the portal to bail you out if your redshirt sophomore isn't ready to play yet."
FBS Staffer 4: "I think it's going to be bonkers this year. The demand is there for it. I think it's going to be insane. I think this is going to be the year where you're like, 'Holy s--t, people are making lateral moves. What's going on?'
"I think it's going to be chaotic. There will be some moves where you're like that makes zero sense at all. … If you get a guy, do you lose the rest of your room? How do you play that?"
FBS Staffer 5: "I think a lot of it will be Group of Five guys. Look at (John) Mateer at Washington State. He sat behind Cam Ward.
"Nobody really knew about him, right? Except for Washington State. Now, he's playing and playing really well. He developed for a year or two and he's playing really well. He could stay at Washington State. But is there something else out there?
"I'm not trying to demean or anything or talk down, but I think it'll be like a farm system of quarterbacks, guys who you aren't totally sure on coming out of high school who will go to a South Alabama or a Louisiana Tech, develop and do a good job. Then schools that didn't get the right quarterback coming out of high school or have a gap year will go out and try and get one of those guys."
FBS Staffer 6: "With schools being able to project rev share dollars, they'll be able to keep their top guy at quarterback. They're not going to lose out on a kid on 200,000 or 300,000 dollars, if you have an elite dude, you're using your rev share to keep him."
FBS Staffer 7: "I think it will still be heavy, just like the draft, everyone will put a premium on that position. But now with revenue sharing and NIL people will put a premium on it even more."
FBS Staffer 9: "Similar to what it's been. It's going to have some headliner names and some guys who move around. I'm not sure if there will be as many schools utilizing the portal market, but I continue to think there will be a good amount of flopping."
FBS Staffer 10: "I think there will be good players out there, but I don't know how many sure things will be in the portal. I think some people are going to have to bet on guys who aren't prototypical or guys who don't have starter snaps."
MORE: John Mateer remembers being snubbed the first time, if you want any clues about his future
