Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check: UCLA really may be the next Indiana, but the Big Ten is eating itself alive

Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. 

It was such a ridiculous question during the offseason that I found it offensive. After we spent the entire offseason between the 2024 and 2025 seasons asking, "who is the next Indiana?" we tried to do it again.

Even though the Indiana we were all trying to replace won the national title, pulling off one of the most improbable turnaround stories in sports history, not just college football, people couldn't help themselves. Low-hanging fruit will forever be reached for because it's right there! It's so easy to reach!

So when UCLA hired Bob Chesney from James Madison, it was simply impossible not to ask. Chesney, like Curt Cignetti, was hired away from James Madison. He was hired by a Big Ten basketball school that hasn't had the same kind of success in basketball that it longs for, and was wondering if maybe it should put a little more effort into football.

And it drove me insane. But now I sit here before you, laptop screen in front of me, fingers mindlessly tapping away at the keys, with one question for all of you.

What if UCLA actually is the next Indiana?

Now, to be clear, I mean this in the "2024 Indiana" sense. I don't think UCLA is going to win a national title this year, nor do I think it will next year. But after watching it play four games this season, and seeing how the Big Ten looks a lot softer than anticipated, I can't help but wonder if the Bruins aren't a team equipped to keep doing this.

Did you see what they did to Maryland on Saturday? They may have ended the Mike Locksley Era with a 54-3 win, but the score doesn't tell the whole story. UCLA flew across the country for an early start on the East Coast, and absolutely dominated the Terps. There are countless examples of teams having to make these long road trips and looking like they're half-asleep.

Not the Bruins. They showed up, punched Maryland in the face, and just kept punching. It was the second straight time they've scored at least 50 points, and they've scored at least 45 in three of their four games. There's a relentless aggression to their approach that reminds me of what I saw from Indiana in 2024 when the Hoosiers surprised the world with an unexpected hot start. One that, ironically enough, included a 42-13 beatdown of UCLA in the Rose Bowl. I remember that game vividly because it was the moment when I thought to myself, "hey, this Indiana team might be kinda good."

It's the same sense I have with these Bruins. Now, that Indiana team only played two ranked teams in 2024, and it lost to both of them. It fell to Ohio State 38-15 in the regular season, and fell to Notre Dame 27-17 in the playoffs. It wasn't competitive in either game, because as good as the Hoosiers were, they weren't at that level yet.

I have similar feelings about the Bruins. They are limited. They haven't offered much of a passing threat to this point, but boy will they run the dang ball down your dang throat. And they will take pleasure in it. They bludgeon you with so many options, and they seem just as happy to pick up three yards as they do to bust loose for 50.

Things will get much more difficult in a hurry. The Bruins have a bye next week and return on Oct. 10 with a road game against Oregon. Let's assume they lose that game. After the Ducks, it's Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, at Minnesota, and then Illinois. I have no reason to believe UCLA can't win all five of those games. If they do, they'd be 9-1 heading into their final two games at Michigan and versus USC. Both of those teams lost this weekend. Both have flaws.

Both could very well lose to the UCLA team I've seen so far.

So what if UCLA is the next Indiana? The question doesn't sound nearly as stupid to me right now.

The B1G is eating itself alive

The Big Ten played only one nonconference game against a Power Four opponent this weekend. It lost. That's how it's typically gone for the league this year, as Purdue became the third Big Ten team to lose to Notre Dame this season, and the loss dropped the league to 4-10 against other such leagues/teams.

This is a serious issue for the league, which I've gone over here a few times already. Those noncon losses hurt the Big Ten's ability to win at-large bids, and if it wanted to get four teams into the College Football Playoff, it really needed its top teams to be its top teams.

They haven't been this season. While Oregon seemed to get its act together with a 41-27 win at USC, and Ohio State trounced Illinois 42-19, Indiana played a way-too-close-for-comfort game against Northwestern Friday night, eeking out a 29-23 win.

Michigan, in what was surely poetic justice, lost to Iowa 20-19 on a last-second touchdown.

Penn State peed down its leg and lost at home to Wisconsin 24-20. And while we're all happy for Iowa to be 4-0, and I've made my love for UCLA known, the odds are not in the Big Ten's favor. Literally.

Here's a comparison of what "To Make The Playoff" odds looked like at DraftKings for Big Ten teams before the weekend's games began, compared to where they are as I write this in the early morning hours of Sunday.

Of the 10 Big Ten teams with the best odds of making the playoff heading into the weekend, only four (Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, UCLA) saw their odds improve this week. Making matters worse, if we use the implied odds of those numbers, the Big Ten's fourth favorite (pick USC, Oregon or Penn State) had a 34.5% chance of making the field.

After Week 4, the Big Ten's fourth favorite (Penn State) has a 19.6% chance of making the field.

Now, if there's good news, it's that the implied odds of the Big Ten's third favorite last week were also 34.5%, and with Oregon now at +125, that number improves to a 44.4% chance. Still, the Big Ten only has two teams that Vegas believes will make the field more than 50% of the time.

So according to oddsmakers, three Big Ten teams is more likely than it was last week, but four is a lot less likely. And getting only two remains a possibility.

Then there's the SEC

Looking at the same odds, the SEC is in a great spot. While Miami and Notre Dame are co-favorites at -800, Georgia (-600) and Texas (-550) are right behind them.

And then there are three more SEC teams before we get to Oregon on the board. What's crazier? There are four SEC teams with a better than 50% chance of making the field according to the implied odds, and Alabama has a 47.6% chance according to its implied odds.

I've been saying the SEC has a shot at getting six teams in and people think I've lost my mind, but the sportsbooks don't necessarily disagree. Of course, odds at sportsbooks aren't truly accurate predictions of what's likely to happen, and the field is still determined by a group of human beings, but it's worth noting.

It should also come as no surprise that the biggest jump in the SEC this week came from Florida. The Gators whomped Ole Miss 52-28 and saw their odds move from +205 (32.8%) to -136 (57.6%). I would've led the column with Florida this week, but I already proclaimed them a legitimate playoff threat in last week's Vibe Check after their win over Auburn. 

We need to rewire our brains

There's a lot about college football that's different than the sport of five years ago, let alone the sport we grew up with (if you're reading this, I assume you're an adult because kids don't read anymore). As is often the case with change, we're pretty slow to adapt, but there's one area of the sport I think we better start getting used to: how to handle the best teams in the country not looking great.

We grew up with a sport where the best separated themselves from the pack pretty easily. Every year a dominant team or two (or sometimes three and even four) would emerge and lay waste to everything in their path. That doesn't happen now. While there's still an elite tier, that tier of teams cannot pull away from anybody else within that tier.

That doesn't mean blowouts won't happen when they meet; it just means that close wins deserve more respect than we may have given them in the past.

Which is why when I look at Texas, I see a team with flaws, but I still see one of the best teams in the country. There's no shame in beating No. 1 Ohio State by a point, or "only" beating No. 14 Tennessee on the road by three points. But the reaction you're more likely to see after Texas' win will skew toward the "man, what's wrong with the Longhorns? Can we really expect that team to compete for a national title?"

Hell yes you can. They're 4-0 with two strong wins, including one over an Ohio State team that most power ratings -- mine included -- still consider the strongest team in the country.

Just food for thought before you bury a team for winning close games against good teams.

The ACC's loss is the Big 12's gain

Louisville losing at home 30-27 to Wake Forest is a blow to the league's chances of getting two teams in the field. Yes, the ACC has other 4-0 teams besides Miami, and I've been impressed by Duke, Virginia Tech and Pitt, but it's hard to trust any of the three to continue winning at this pace.

Louisville picking up a second loss on the season also hurts SMU's chances to claim that second bid because it makes SMU's loss look "worse."

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, while Texas Tech continues to look far more vulnerable than expected, Utah looks stronger than I anticipated. The Utes are 4-0 after beating Iowa State 31-17. Things got a little iffy after the Utes jumped out to a 24-3 lead, but there are three legitimate playoff hopefuls in the Big 12 right now between the Utes, Tech and BYU.

Going back to those DraftKings odds, BYU's the third-favorite at +270, but while those are only implied odds of 27%, it's much better than anybody in the ACC not named Miami.

Seriously, as I mentioned earlier, the Hurricanes are at -800, and the next best ACC team on the board is Virginia Tech at +700 (12.5%). Those are the same odds as Houston, and they're tied with Houston and Penn State for 22nd overall.

It was just a three-point loss to a Wake Forest team that's better than anybody wants to give it credit for, but the ramifications for the ACC were widespread.

Boise State got a huge win

It was a great weekend for the Boise State Broncos. Not only did they crush one of their rivals for the G6 spot, Western Michigan, by a score of 32-7, but Oregon beat USC, making their close loss to the Ducks look even better.

Honestly, assuming Boise State doesn't collapse down the stretch and lose more than another game, it's hard to imagine another G6 team getting more respect from the committee than they will. Memphis and Western Michigan might go on to win their leagues, and the Broncos have wins over both.

Week 5 vibe shifters

A look ahead to the five games on this week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• Ohio State at Iowa
• Alabama at Mississippi State
• Florida at Missouri
• Miami at Clemson
• Marshall at James Madison

This week's CFP projection

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Indiana
9. Florida
10. BYU
11. LSU
12. Boise State