Predicting conference championship game overreactions: Notre Dame gets bounced, ACC makes some serious changes

College football's championship weekend always delivers plenty of excitement. Over two days, 18 teams will battle for league glory -- and more beyond that.

In the 12-team College Football Playoff era, five spots are automatically reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions. Several of those contenders are also jockeying for a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds.

That adds another layer of importance to an already momentous slate of title games. A lot is on the line for a lot of teams in Week 15.

We here at CBS Sports have been overreacting to every college football weekend for a while now. For a change, let's try to manifest a few things ahead of a packed championship weekend.

Notre Dame gets left by the wayside 

Notre Dame shouldn't be in the projected playoff field at this point, but that's another conversation already covered in this overreactions column. The Fighting Irish lost their two most meaningful games and they've spend the last 12 weeks beating up on irrelevant teams. Hardly the résumé of a deserving at-large contender. 

Saturday's championship games will put the Fighting Irish in their proper place. All eyes will be on No. 11 BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cougars should, arguably, be ahead of Notre Dame in the rankings already. 

They'll certainly leap ahead if they beat No. 5 Texas Tech, stealing one of the automatic conference champion bids while relegating the Red Raiders to the at-large conversation. In that scenario, Notre Dame gets bounced as the last team in. 

The ACC re-evaluates championship game qualifications

It is, objectively, hilarious that of the four teams tied with a 6-2 conference record, the five-loss Duke Blue Devils made the cut for the ACC Championship Game. It's a fitting result for a league that cannibalized itself all season, leaving its only school that looks like a legitimate national contender (Miami) in the cold. 

While the rest of the country is basking in the big sickos energy projected by an ACC title clash between Duke and Virginia, Saturday represents a legitimate disaster scenario for the conference. If Duke wins, there's almost no chance the ACC sends a team to the CFP. 

An 8-5 Duke isn't going to magically ascend past many more deserving schools into the CFP rankings. If it does, that would be the final signal that the selection committee cares more about optics and logos than it does actual results on the field. 

If Duke wins, the ACC is going to scramble to re-evaluate its conference championship game tiebreakers. The Blue Devils only made it in because they played a harder conference schedule than the other three teams that finished with a 6-2 ACC record. 

Not because they won those difficult games, mind you, but simply because they played harder opponents. The ACC can start with that ridiculous qualifier when it's deciding what to change. 

Sayin, Mendoza fall flat in "Heisman showdown" 

Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana is being billed as a Heisman Trophy showdown. In one corner you have Buckeye quarterback Julian Sayin, who has slotted into one of the nation's most coveted starting roles well as a redshirt freshman. In the other corner you have veteran Fernando Mendoza, who has taken his game to another level after transferring to Indiana from California. 

Both have been spectacular this season. Sayin has a wealth of weapons, but his individual talent is evident every time he drops back. Mendoza has likely played his way into being the first quarterback taken off the board in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

They're not going to be the story Saturday. They may each have a decent game, but nothing that stands out as an exclamation mark on a Heisman Trophy case. 

Defense will dominate in the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State has smothered every opponent it's played this season under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. The Buckeyes are loaded with stars at every level like Kayden McDonald, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs. 

Indiana has been just as impressive. The Hoosiers rank third in the Big Ten in total defense (251.8 yards per game) and second -- behind only Ohio State -- in scoring defense (10.9 points per game). They've got standout talent of their own, headlined by linebacker Aiden Fisher and defensive back D'Angelo Ponds. 

Those defenses are going to make things very difficult for Sayin and Mendoza. 

James Madison makes its playoff statement

James Madison is first in line to benefit from the ACC chaos. The Dukes made their CFP rankings debut Tuesday after capping a successful 11-1 season with a 59-10 win against Coastal Carolina. 

Bob Chesney's squad finally got the respect it's deserved almost the entire season. Now they'll play their biggest game of the year in the Sun Belt Championship Game against Troy. 

James Madison will take care of business against the Trojans and then spend Saturday cheering for Duke. If the dominoes fall that way, the Dukes should be in no matter what. There's no need to shoehorn another undeserving Power Four school into the conversation.