Connecticut Huskies at South Florida Bulls: Preview, prediction, TV info

Connecticut and South Florida went winless in October, but one will end its losing streak on Saturday night in Tampa. Turnovers must be avoided. The Bulls and Huskies have a combined turnover margin of minus-21 heading into the game.

By Matt Rybaltowski

Oct 30, 2012 at 7:45 pm ET • 3 min read

Lindsey Lamar has been slippery in his senior season. The Bulls RB is averaging nearly nine yards a carry in his last three games. UConn will counter with swarming LBs Yawin Smallwood and Sio Moore. (US Presswire)

Connecticut (3-5, 0-3 Big East) at South Florida (2-6, 0-4 Big East)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, (ESPNU)

Spread: South Florida by 9

Watchability: Low. The matchup pits the two worst teams in the Big East standings, both of which failed to win a game in October. The Bulls easily could have come out victorious in their last two games but lost to Louisville and Syracuse by a combined three points. The Huskies, meanwhile, had a week off to recover from a 30-point drubbing by the Orange. Neither team has been eliminated from contention for a bowl, but the Bulls would be with a loss this week.

Shining stars: UConn -- LB Yawin Smallwood. Despite allowing 40 points against Syracuse, the Huskies rank 10th in FBS in total defense. Smallwood said on Tuesday that the defense has to do a better job forcing turnovers. The Huskies rank 109th in FBS in turnover margin (minus 1.13 per game). Smallwood’s play, though, has remained solid during the Huskies’ three-game losing streak. During the span, the redshirt sophomore linebacker has 32 tackles and two tackles for loss. Smallwood has 13 TFLs this season or 1.63 per game (tied for 16th in FBS). Smallwood and his teammates have the daunting challenge of containing USF RB Lindsey Lamar. USF -- Lamar. The Bulls gained 369 yards on 19 carries last week against Syracuse, an astounding figure considering the Orange had given up only 35.3 rushing yards per game in conference games entering the contest. The senior running back needed just 10 carries to gain 145 yards. In Lamar’s last three games, he has rushed for 314 yards on nearly nine yards a carry. Once Lamar gets into the open field, he can elude defenders with his ability to change directions quickly.

Who could steal the show: UConn -- RB Lyle McCombs. The Huskies’ coaching staff worked arduously during the bye at designing better blocking schemes for the run game. UConn was held to minus-6 yards in the loss to Syracuse -- the fewest by a Huskies’ team since the program joined FBS in 2002. It marked a new low for McCombs in a challenging sophomore season. Even worse, UConn lost versatile, swing lineman Adam Masters with a season-ending ankle injury. Masters will be replaced at starting right guard by sophomore Gus Cruz. A year after rushing for more than 1,150 yards, McCombs ranks seventh in the conference in rushing yards with 500. He’s averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. USF -- QB B.J. Daniels. Though UConn coach Paul Pasqualoni is enamored with Daniels’ versatility, the Huskies did a stellar job of containing the dual-threat quarterback in last year’s win. Pasqualoni knows his defense needs to stop Daniels in zone-read, option and dropback situations. Against the Orange, Daniels might have had his most productive game of the season with 319 total yards, including 134 on the ground.

You going? Ranking the road trip: The Bulls drew more than 38,000 to last Saturday’s game, an impressive figure for a team in the midst of a frustrating stretch. Temperatures could be in the mid- to high-60s at kickoff. Not bad for the Bulls’ second to last home game.

Magic number for UConn: 13. In three wins, the Huskies have allowed an average of just 12.6 points per game. In five defeats, UConn has surrendered an average of 23.2 points per game. The offense has scored 24 or more in only three of eight games.

Magic number for USF: 32. The Bulls have allowed an average of 32.4 points per game in their past five. During that span, USF has allowed more than 175 yards per game on the ground. UConn ranks 116th in rushing offense (86.88 yards per game).

The game comes down to: Turnovers. USF is the only team in FBS that has yet to record an interception this season. On the other side of the ball, the Bulls have committed 17 turnovers. UConn is seventh in the conference in turnover margin (minus-9). It’s three fewer than USF, which is last with minus-12.

Prediction: USF 27, UConn 17.

For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis on the Big East, follow bloggers Evan Hilbert and Matt Rybaltowski @CBSBigEast.