Deion Sanders defied the odds in 2024; can he surprise us again this offseason?

Deion Sanders has long been a moving target. What he can or cannot achieve as Colorado's head coach has been endlessly debated, the goalposts of his critics shifting with every success. Yet Sanders has consistently silenced those voices. After leading the Buffaloes to an 8-2 record -- following a 4-8 campaign in 2023 -- he has Colorado squarely in pole position for Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

As Sanders reshapes Colorado football, the question of whether he will prove another preseason assumption wrong -- that he will not be its head coach by 2025 -- has become one of the main talking points in a season full of them. During the offseason, when Sanders was ranked by a panel of analysts as the Big 12's second-worst coach, the common refrain and assumption when discussing Sanders was, "He won't be there in 2025." 

CBS Sports spoke to over 10 sources throughout college and pro football who sit on each side of one of college football's most intriguing questions: Will Sanders remain the head coach at Colorado after this season? Current polling tips towards the consensus that he will be at Colorado in 2025, though a degree of skepticism remains given the unpredictable coaching carousel and Sanders' tendency to cut against the grain. 

Sanders, during an interview with Michael Irvin last week, responded to Irvin mentioning the idea of coaching the flailing Dallas Cowboys by taking his laptop outside to showcase Folsom Field and the Flatirons in the background, saying "I gotta show you where I am. I love it where I am. I love it where I am! I love it!"

Sanders' management did not respond to a request for comment. Colorado, when contacted, referred to his various TV interviews int he recent weeks but did not make Sanders available.

Why would Sanders leave Colorado? 

The most common reasoning offered by observers who think Sanders will leave Boulder is simply that his sons Shedeur (starting quarterback) and Shilo (starting safety), as well as Heisman frontrunner Travis Hunter, won't be at CU after this season. Sanders already addressed that logic during the summer when he told Fox Sports' Joel Klatt: "I'm a leader of men, not a follower of men."... "I'm a father, not a baby daddy. I lead my sons, I don't follow my sons."

Sanders' health is a concern. The 58-year-old has had issues with blood clots and blood circulation, forcing the amputation of two toes and multiple surgeries across his tenure as a head coach at Jackson State and Colorado. Multiple sources who have observed Sanders during games say that he's moving better on the sidelines and taking fewer rests. He's had a chair on the sidelines in the past, but hasn't needed one this season. 

According to his contract with Colorado obtained by CBS Sports via open records request, Sanders owes no money to Colorado if he retires at any moment during the contract. However, if he comes out of retirement to take a coaching job in college or the pros before the end of the contract term which runs through 2027, he would owe CU buyout money.

What would it look like if Sanders stayed?

The main reason Sanders would likely stay is simply the fact that what he's doing in his second season in Boulder is working. In addition to the annual roster shakeups, Colorado rejiggered its coaching staff by elevating Pat Shurmur to offensive coordinator, bringing Robert Livingston in from the Cincinnati Bengals as defensive coordinator, and adding NFL veteran Phil Loadholt as offensive line coach. All three coaches had one thing in common: NFL roots, as either a coach or a player. It's paid dividends. The Buffs not only have lofty goals ahead of them, but have improved over the course of the season. Offensive line deficiencies remain, but CU has found ways to work around them and still have success on offense. 

"Pat Shurmur has done a really nice job," an agent told CBS Sports. "It's a legit offense that's attacking." 

Should Deion stay, Shedeur will have to be replaced. Colorado's NIL budget will need to be improved for continued roster reconstruction and adaptation in a revenue-sharing world to approach the millions needed to fund the football roster. CU is expected to continue to opt for a portal-heavy approach. One NIL agent who represents players across the country said Colorado had begun kicking the tires on a few players -- which is common at this point in the calendar -- with the position Sanders is staying. 

There remains some question of sustainability with the transfer-heavy approach, but the early returns at Colorado are clear. 

"There's probably not enough of a data set to know yet," an athletics director at a Power Four program said. "It's a recipe to be really good but it's also a recipe to be a disaster in a given year, too, depending on the makeup of the guys you bring in. Can you change the culture on a guy who is 23-years-old? That type of thing. He's going to have great talent on his team. I don't care if that's from high school or portal, guys want to play for him and he seems to be a fun coach to play for. He's going to have talent. The jury is out, in general, on whether you can win consistently by going heavy in the portal."

There may be fewer outgoings from the roster than in the last few seasons (41 in 2024, 57 in 2023), but Colorado is beginning to ramp up for the stretch run with player acquisition windows in December. 

"He has picked up their recruiting pace tremendously since the season has started, and has multiple key flip targets," an NIL agent said. 

Whether Sanders will remain at Colorado is the key question many recruits from high school or the transfer portal will certainly be asking themselves. Chief among Sanders' targets is Top247 quarterback prospect Julian Lewis, who recently decommitted from USC amid serious optimism CU could flip him. They will have to fight against a late charge from in-state Georgia and sources indicate that Indiana is cooling on its pursuit on the Peach State prospect. Sanders' approach to high school recruiting centers around only taking players that he feels can contribute early, and with Shedeur bound for the NFL, Lewis could play Day 1 in Boulder, giving Sanders his QB of the future.

If Sanders did leave for another coaching job, where would he go? 

There is always the pipe dream of reuniting with Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys, but multiple industry sources in college and the NFL are not lending much credence to rumors that Sanders would replace Mike McCarthy in Big D. 

In 2022, Sanders told Sports Illustrated: "I don't have any desire or ambition to coach in the NFL. I have a problem with men getting their checks and not doing their jobs. I have a problem with that. I would be too tough as a coach in the NFL because I still have those old school attributes." 

But Sanders has expressed the wish to exert influence on whatever team may draft Shedeur, Shilo or Travis. Shedeur's flirtations with the Raiders have been a humorous subplot to this season with the Colorado signal-caller tweeting "thank God" after Las Vegas losses, which improves the Raiders' draft stock (currently projected to pick No. 5), and being seen this fall with Raiders president Sandra Douglass Morgan at Big 12 media days and owner Mark Davis at a WNBA game. Deion's business manager, Constance Schwartz-Morini, also represents Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce in off-field endeavors. 

Of the college jobs industry sources could picture Coach Prime outside of Colorado, one always comes up. 

"If he has another year next year like he has this year, there will be a ton of support for him to go back to Florida State," an AD said. 

FSU is not expected to have the money ($63.8 million) to part ways with head coach Mike Norvell, and Sanders' relationship with the school he played his college football career at is complicated. He does not currently "claim" FSU, and he likes to say he graduated from an HBCU. If Gus Malzahn were to retire, fellow Big 12 school UCF would be an intriguing fit, especially as it's centrally located in Florida. Sanders has said that he's responsible for their biggest-ever recruiting weekend when the Buffs played the Knights this fall, and he's pursued multiple recruits from in-state power IMG Academy a few hours away in Bradenton. Sanders impressed TCU athletic director Jeremiah Donati in a job interview for a role that eventually went to Sonny Dykes, and Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yuracheck told Sports Illustrated in 2020: 

"I didn't think (Arkansas) was the right starting point for him as a collegiate head coach in the SEC, but I think Jackson State is a great landing spot. Some are going to say this is a publicity stunt. Yes, it's going to sell more tickets, but the time I was able to visit with Deion, he knows football."

An AD who spoke to Yurachek told CBS that Sanders was "shockingly ready" for his interview with the Hogs and added that a place like UCLA or USC would be great fits for Sanders although Sanders has said "Los Angeles is too expensive" for him. 

If Sanders were to go anywhere else, there would be a much different dynamic with administration. Athletic director Rick George has been fairly hands-off with Sanders, giving him a lot of latitude to shape the program as he sees fit and continue to pursue his off-field interests. Sanders, for instance, recently announced a weekly talk show on the free streaming platform Tubi, adding to his entertainment responsibilities outside of football. Colorado's relatively small donor base and more academically focused regents also lessen the risk of a power struggle. 

Colorado's future if Sanders leaves

Sanders, a two-time SWAC Coach of the Year who arrived from Jackson State, is a program savior for a Colorado program without a recent pedigree of winning, and no pedigree for the level of attention they receive week-in, week-out. Colorado games drew an average of 7.2 million viewers in 2023, with five games ranked in the top 25 nationally, and school applications among new students jumped nearly 20%. Revenue tied to multimedia rights increased 51%, according to Sportico. The dynamic could create significant issues for CU if he leaves. 

"Football is so autonomous and on an island there, and if he leaves, what do you really have?" an AD of a Power Four program in playoff contention said. "I've thought about that. How do they move on? It's going to be a challenge because it's his operation and you have to build it back up from being on the ground floor again."

And all of that points to Sanders' significant leverage. His contract with Colorado includes a clause requiring an extension "discussion" at the conclusion of the 2025 season that "must address" his compensation and buyout. Whether he makes it to that date in the job remains to be seen.