Duke vs. Virginia prediction, pick, odds, spread: Blue Devils, Cavaliers both seek first ACC Championship
The 2025 ACC Championship Game features two programs vying for their first-ever conference crown
By
David Cobb
•
3 min read
Saturday night's ACC Championship Game showdown between No. 17 Virginia and Duke at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will produce a historic outcome either way -- neither program has ever won the league title game before. It's been 12 years since the Blue Devils' last appearance and five for Virginia. Both teams will playing in the conference championship game for just the second time since its introduction in 2005.
A bad season for historical ACC powers Clemson and Florida State flung the door open for chaos in the league. Virginia capitalized by finishing above the fray with a 7-1 conference mark as the Cavaliers broke through under fourth-year coach Tony Elliott to reach 10 wins for the first time since 1989. Duke arrived via the benefit of tiebreakers that separated five teams with 6-2 marks in conference play.
At 7-5 overall, the Blue Devils are an unlikely participant in a conference title game, as their resume is dragged down by a 1-3 mark in nonconference play. They reached the ACC Championship Game by having a higher conference opponent winning percentage than the other four teams who were also 6-2 in league play.
Regardless of how they got here, the stage is set for a championship battle between the Blue Devils and Cavaliers that will have significant College Football Playoff stakes and historical implications for both teams. The winner will be able to claim ACC supremacy for the first time in program history.
Duke vs. Virginia: Need to know
Rematch of a beatdown: Virginia dominated Duke 34-17 on the road last month in a much-needed bounce-back performance following a loss to Wake Forest. The Cavaliers led 31-3 late in the third quarter after J'Mari Taylor reeled off a 78-yard touchdown run. Although Duke added a couple of fourth-quarter scores to make the final margin look respectable, UVa was clearly the better team. Virginia doubled up Duke 22-11 in first downs and total yards (540-255). It was the worst game of the season for Duke star quarterback Darian Mensah in terms of completion percentage (51.4%) and his second-worst in terms of passing yards (213).
Duke's turnover swings Duke dropped to 5-5 (4-2 ACC) with its ugly home loss to Virginia on Nov. 15. But the Blue Devils found themselves over the final two games of the regular season by beating in-state rivals North Carolina and Wake Forest. A 4-0 turnover margin lifted Duke to a 49-32 win over the Demon Deacons last week. For better or worse, massive turnover margins have been a theme for the Blue Devils this season. They coughed the football up five times in an early-season loss to Illinois. During a subsequent three-game winning streak against NC State, Syracuse and Cal, Duke won the turnover battled a combined 11-0. Taking care of the ball against this team is of the utmost importance.
College Football Playoff implications: If Virginia wins, the Cavaliers will undoubtedly be one of the five highest-ranked conference champions and receive automatic qualification into the CFP. That would be the simple outcome for the CFP Selection Committee. But if Duke wins, the picture will be far more complicated. Assuming No. 25 James Madison wins the Sun Belt Championship Game over Troy on Friday night, JMU could end up being ranked above the Blue Devils. With the American Championship Game winner (either No. 20 Tulane or No. 24 North Texas) also poised to be ranked ahead of Duke, the Blue Devils could be in trouble. There's a strong possibility that a victory won't get them into the playoff.
Where to watch Duke vs. Virginia live
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of American Stadium -- Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Duke vs. Virginia prediction, picks
Duke played arguably its worst game of the season against Virginia on Nov. 15, falling 34-17 at home to the Cavaliers, but the result shouldn't be overanalyzed. It was the best of Virginia and the worst of Duke. Life this year in the ACC is so volatile that the paradigm could easily shift the other way this time around. Expect an inspired effort from the Blue Devils, who have spent the week hearing why they don't deserve to be here as an unranked team with a 7-5 record. Duke boasts one of the nation's top passers in quarterback Darian Mensah, and head coach Manny Diaz is smart enough defensively to deliver a better game plan than in the first meeting. Pick: Duke +3.5
Who will win and cover in each conference championship game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 43-36 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.
