Tale of the Tape: Fernando Mendoza vs. Julian Sayin in Big Ten title game showcase that could decide Heisman

Two undefeated quarterbacks. Two programs on the brink of history. On Saturday, Ohio State's Julian Sayin and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza square off in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 Big Ten title game that could reverberate far beyond the conference. 

Both are among the betting favorites to win the Heisman Trophy -- FanDuel Sportsbook lists Mendoza at +160, with Sayin not far behind at +220. The stakes couldn't be much higher, and both quarterbacks are ready to prove why they belong in college football's elite fraternity.

The game is a showcase for Heisman voters, who will cast their ballots before Monday.

Looking strictly at games against FBS competition this season, Mendoza and Sayin occupy similar tiers in efficiency but with subtle differences that define their styles. Mendoza leans slightly more vertical with elusive playmaking, while Sayin excels in accuracy and high-leverage situations, particularly under pressure.

The Tale of the Tape comparison below illustrates both their production and efficiency at a glance:

Tale of the Tape: Mendoza vs. Sayin

Note: FBS rank among QBs with at least 275 dropbacks vs. FBS opponents in parentheses 

Despite how close the numbers are, Sayin holds a slight edge in this table of stats courtesy of TruMedia. He leads the FBS in completion percentage (77.9%) and under-pressure accuracy (63.9%), demonstrating an uncanny ability to deliver throws even when the pocket collapses. That level of precision is difficult to ignore and gives Ohio State a consistent edge in sustaining drives and executing in high-leverage situations.

Mendoza is slightly lower in those same categories, completing 70.3% of his passes overall and 49.2% when facing pressure. However, his game includes an underrated rushing element that Sayin doesn't match: Mendoza has added 224 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season, compared to just 34 yards and no rushing scores for Sayin.

"I guess I'll call it sneaky athletic," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said of Mendoza on Tuesday. "When you look at him, maybe you don't think dual-threat, but he makes a lot of plays with his feet. You can tell he's very intelligent. He can see the field and makes good decisions and plays situational football."

From portal prize to program pillar

Mendoza's path to Bloomington is unconventional -- or perhaps entirely conventional in the era of the transfer portal. A low three-star recruit out of Columbus High School in Miami, Florida in the 2022 class, he signed with California and spent two seasons there before entering the portal as one of the cycle's most coveted quarterbacks. Indiana seized the opportunity, hoping he could mirror the spark Kurtis Rourke brought to Curt Cignetti's turnaround last season.

The impact was instantaneous. Mendoza set the Hoosiers' single-season record for touchdown passes (32) and climbed the program's total passing yards chart -- he currently sits seventh with 2,758 -- all while guiding Indiana to its first undefeated regular season. The Hoosiers are now one win away from claiming their first outright Big Ten title since 1945.

His résumé isn't built on soft spots in the schedule, either. Some of Mendoza's sharpest football came in the most hostile environments, and the pattern became unmistakable: adversity would hit and he'd answer. 

At Iowa in Week 5, he directed a game-tying fourth-quarter field-goal drive, threw an interception on the next possession, then delivered the go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes. Two weeks later in Eugene, he shook off a pick-6 in a one-score contest with Oregon by engineering a 75-yard touchdown drive that put the Hoosiers ahead and ended the Ducks' 18-game home winning streak -- the longest in the FBS at the time. His composure carried into Week 11 at Penn State, where after yet another fourth-quarter interception, he guided an 80-yard, game-winning touchdown march to preserve Indiana's perfect season.

The making of a steady star

Sayin entered the season carrying a very different kind of expectation. A former five-star recruit and one of the most heralded quarterback prospects in the country, he arrived in Columbus with an advanced polish that made him the favorite to eventually win the starting job -- but few expected him to look this comfortable, this quickly.

That transformation began immediately in Week 1, when he was thrown into the spotlight against Texas and preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning. Yet Sayin handled it with a surprising steadiness for a redshirt freshman. He took no sacks, committed no turnovers and helped Ohio State to a 14-7 win that looked more like survival than anything.

It was the first glimpse of the poised version of Sayin that would grow into the centerpiece of the Buckeyes' undefeated run.

But his defining moment didn't come until last Saturday in The Game against Michigan. After throwing an interception on his second pass attempt, he responded with a composed performance: 19-of-26, 233 yards and three touchdowns, snapping the Buckeyes' four-game losing streak to their rival and firmly planting himself in the Heisman conversation.

Day has seen that evolution up close.

"The guy who played against Texas and the guy who came off that field on Saturday look like two different people to me," Day said. "Just the look in his eyes."

He compared it to sending a sailor off to sea -- the idea that someone returns from a trial not only changed, but hardened, more aware, more confident. That's how he sees his young quarterback now, carrying himself like a player who's already lived through pressure moments.

What stands out on film is how Sayin's game has shifted from talent-driven to command-driven. Early in the year, the flashes were obvious -- tight release, effortless zip, layered accuracy. But as Ohio State navigated the heart of the schedule, those tools fused with a calm presence behind center. He rarely forces the ball, and his anticipation has improved to the point where he operates the Buckeyes' offense with a veteran's rhythm.

Cignetti has noticed it, too.

"He's played with a lot of poise," Cignetti said. "He doesn't look like a guy that's in his first year as a starter."

Sayin, the blue-chip talent evolving into a steady field general, and Mendoza, the portal revelation who elevated Indiana beyond expectations, now face the greatest test of their seasons thus far. Saturday won't just crown a Big Ten champion -- it could tilt the Heisman conversation and decide which quarterback's story will linger as the defining arc of 2025.