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Few bubble teams own the luxurious control-your-own-destiny condition in the College Football Playoff race coming down the stretch this season, but that's where No. 10 Texas (7-2) sits entering Saturday's showdown at No. 5 Georgia as one of the SEC's preferred squads in the eyes of the selection committee.

It's not a playoff elimination game for the Longhorns since there's another titanic matchup this month with unbeaten and third-ranked Texas A&M on the horizon, but a victory over the Bulldogs would break the program's big-game curse under Steve Sarkisian and provide Texas with its third top-15 win of the season.

Texas' College Football Playoff path

Remaining path

  • at No. 5 Georgia (Nov. 15)
  • vs. Arkansas (Nov. 22)
  • vs. No. 3 Texas A&M (Nov. 28)

If there's a potential three-loss team capable of getting in the 12-team bracket this season as an at-large pick, Texas fits the bill. The Longhorns need help for that scenario to unfold from teams around them in the rankings along with splitting matchups against Georgia and Texas A&M, but it's possible. Oklahoma's upcoming slate is challenging, Notre Dame's trek to nationally ranked Pitt this weekend could be worrisome and Oregon's battle with USC on Nov. 22 likely eliminates one of those two from the at-large mix.

All that said, if Texas wins out and finishes 10-2, breathe easy Longhorns fans -- you're in. Ranked No. 1 in the preseason before falling to then third-ranked Ohio State on Aug. 30, Texas has made substantial improvements since with the committee taking notice. Arch Maning has consecutive 300-yard, multi-touchdown outings and the Longhorns are riding a four-game SEC winning streak that includes a pair of squads ranked inside the current top 15.

Vegas says

Oddsmakers are't convinced the Longhorns will appear in the playoff given current numbers at +186 (yes) and -235 (no), per FanDuel, but it's close. As it stands in the SEC, Texas is one of four teams at plus-money to reach the playoff and has better odds than all, joining Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Longhorns are ranked ahead of each those programs with wins over two of them.

We think ...

Projecting out to the committee's final meetings after conference championships are decided, Texas has a great shot at earning the "last team in" designation with the No. 10 seed given the expectation the ACC and Group of Five champions will be awarded the No. 11 and 12 spots as auto-bids regardless of where those teams are ranked inside the final top 25.

There's nothing to like about that Texas loss at Florida. In fact, it's the worst-looking loss for any SEC playoff hopeful this season. That said, the selection committee's been willing to overlook that setback given the Longhorns' overall strength of schedule (No. 13). 

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