COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 11 Michigan at USC
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Lincoln Riley has USC (7-2) in the College Football Playoff conversation once again, but the Trojans are still looking for a breakthrough in the Big Ten after last year's struggles. With three critical games remaining, USC's path to the CFP hinges on navigating a challenging late November stretch -- one of the toughest among those vying for a spot in the 12-team field. 

Wins over Michigan and at Nebraska have shown the Trojans' potential, but they need to sustain momentum and avoid missteps to make a legitimate case for their first CFP appearance.

USC's College Football Playoff path

Remaining path

  • vs. No. 21 Iowa (Nov. 15)
  • at No. 8 Oregon (Nov. 22)
  • vs. UCLA (Nov. 29)

Saturday's matchup with No. 21 Iowa serves as an elimination-style test, giving USC a chance to add a quality win to its résumé and strengthen its case with the selection committee -- not to mention how crowded the Big Ten playoff picture has become with Michigan also still in the mix.

If the Trojans are able to beat the Hawkeyes, then a road trip to No. 8 Oregon sets up what could serve as the statement win USC needs to solidify itself as a serious CFP contender. Back-to-back wins against teams currently ranked by the committee would dramatically improve the Trojans' profile and provide crucial momentum heading into the season finale.

Still, that rivalry showdown with crosstown rival UCLA looms large. USC lost its past two meetings against the Bruins at the Coliseum. What a dagger that would be to lose a third straight.

Vegas says

The oddsmakers give USC a realistic opportunity to make its CFP debut in 2025, listing the Trojans at +330 to reach the 12-team bracket -- the 15th-best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday morning. Still, the safer bet remains against them, with -450 that they get left out, signaling skepticism that USC can navigate its final stretch unscathed.

We think ...

USC faces a tricky path to the CFP even if it wins out, largely because of its October loss at Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are currently in the field, and if both teams finish undefeated, that head-to-head defeat could create a dilemma for the selection committee, potentially leaving the Trojans on the outside despite a strong finish.

Still, USC has just notched its first three-game Big Ten win streak since joining the conference last season, and questions remain over whether that momentum can carry through November against consecutive ranked opponents.

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