| Freshman RB Johnathan Gray has taken over the bulk of the work in the Texas backfield. (US Presswire) |
Iowa State (5-4, 2-4 Big 12) at No. 19 Texas (7-2, 4-2 Big 12)
Kickoff: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (Longhorn Network)
Spread: Texas by 10.5
Watchability: On a weekend where there aren't any obvious marquee matchups in the Big 12, this may prove to be one of the best. The contrast of styles should be interesting to see. Will Texas look more like the team that was impressive in beating Texas Tech last week? Or the one that got hammered by 42 points by Oklahoma earlier this season?
Shining stars: Iowa State -- LB A.J. Klein. The heart and soul of the Cyclones' defense, Klein had to take on even more responsibility when fellow LB Jake Knott saw his season (and career) end early due to injury before last week's game against Oklahoma. With Knott out of action, Klein is now the team leader in tackles (73) and can make plays in pass coverage as well. Texas -- RB Johnathan Gray. Texas used three running backs earlier this season almost equally, but the load has been shifted to Gray. The freshman just gets results. He had 106 rushing yards on 20 carries last week against what had been a tough Texas Tech defense.
Who could steal the show: Iowa State -- QB Steele Jantz. Don't laugh. Even Jantz, who has struggled to keep his starting job this season, could have a big day against the Longhorns, who rank 88th nationally in pass efficiency defense. Jantz threw for 381 yards and five touchdowns when ISU faced Baylor. Texas' pass defense may not be much better than the Bears'. Texas -- QB David Ash. He's not flashy, but he can get the job done. In last week's matchup with Texas Tech's Seth Doege -- who was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the nation coming in -- it was Ash who had a much better passer-efficiency rating, needing only 19 attempts to finish with 264 yards and three touchdowns.
You going? Ranking the road trip: It may be a bit of a somber occasion in Austin this weekend, as Longhorns fans mourn the passing of legendary Texas coach Darrell K. Royal, for whom the stadium is named. With the home team on a three-game winning streak after a blowout loss to rival Oklahoma, fans should be plenty excited for this game, though.
Magic number for Iowa State: 21.44. That's how many points per game the Cyclones are giving up to their opponents, good enough for 29th nationally. Every team that has faced ISU this season has finished with fewer points than its scoring average coming into the game.
Magic number for Texas: 7.67. That's the average number of tackles for loss per game the Longhorns have managed this season. Texas ranks No. 7 nationally in that stat. If the defense can get Iowa State into unfavorable down-and-distance situations, it bodes well for UT. The Cyclones don't have the sort of offense built to gain yards in big chunks.
The game comes down to: How bad is the Texas defense? It's certainly not one of the Big 12's best, but is it good enough to limit an ISU offense that has struggled most of the year? Iowa State showed in its win over Baylor that it can take advantage of poorly played defense. It will have to do that again if it hopes to win on the road.
Prediction: Texas 28, Iowa State 24
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Big 12 bloggers C.J. Moore and Patrick Southern, follow @CBSSportsBig12 on Twitter. You can also follow C.J. (@cjmoore4) and Patrick (@patricksouthern).