There have been plenty of important games during Lincoln Riley's time at USC.
The 2022 Pac-12 Championship Game against Utah certainly qualifies. Win that game, and USC was going to the College Football Playoff in Riley's first season. It was about to add another Heisman Trophy to an already packed trophy case thanks to Caleb Williams. It looked like USC had pulled off one of the quickest rebuilds we'd ever seen.
Then Utah beat the Trojans 47-24. Williams pulled his hamstring in the game, and things quickly went south. They've mostly stayed there since. Four years later, Riley finds himself preparing for another enormous game — only this one feels different.
Saturday's game against Oregon is the most important game Riley has coached at USC because it's no longer about what USC might become under Riley. It's about proving what USC actually is.
The Trojans enter the weekend 4-0 and ranked No. 12. They've scored at least 39 points in every game. Jayden Maiava has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and the offense has done what Riley offenses tend to do. But we've seen this movie before. In fact, we've seen it a few times.
Same question keeps coming back
The question with USC has never really been whether Riley can build an offense capable of putting up 40 points. If you're still wondering about that after watching his teams for the last decade, I'm not sure you've been paying attention.
The question is whether USC can beat good teams.
Under Riley, the Trojans are 5-13 against ranked opponents. They've gone 1-4 against ranked Big Ten teams since joining the conference. Last year, USC got to 8-2 and went to Eugene with a chance to put itself in an excellent position to reach the College Football Playoff.
Oregon beat it 42-27. The Trojans kept it close for most of the game and were down only a score after a fourth-quarter touchdown, but immediately gave up another score to the Ducks and never scored again. It felt close, but it never was.
You get that sense a lot with Riley's USC — whether it's the playoff, fixing the defense or becoming the program everybody assumed USC would be when Riley left Oklahoma for Los Angeles.
Getting closer isn't enough anymore
That's what makes Saturday different from so many of the other big games USC has played under Riley. When the Trojans lost the Pac-12 Championship Game in 2022, it was disappointing, but the program was still ahead of schedule. Riley inherited a 4-8 team and, 12 months later, had it one win away from the playoff. You could reasonably believe the best was yet to come.
Then USC went 8-5 in 2023. It went 7-6 in 2024. Last year's 9-4 finish was an improvement, but the Trojans again failed to reach the playoff and once again struggled against the best teams on their schedule.
So now we're in Year 5, and the idea of getting closer doesn't hit the same anymore.
To Riley's credit, USC has spent the last few years addressing the obvious problems. Recruiting has improved. The roster is deeper. He's moved on from Alex Grinch as his defensive coordinator and brought in new coaches with new ideas. The program has put greater emphasis on becoming the kind of team capable of surviving in the Big Ten instead of trying to win every game 48-45.
There have been signs of progress. There have also been 460 yards and 35 points allowed to Rutgers.
Oregon already looks like the blueprint
Another reason Oregon matters so much is that the Ducks are what USC is trying to become. Since the two programs left the Pac-12 for the Big Ten, Oregon has looked perfectly comfortable in its new surroundings. While Oregon has yet to win the elusive national title, Dan Lanning has built a roster that can score with anybody while also holding up physically against the best teams in the conference. It's also won the Big Ten and reached the playoff twice.
USC has spent the last few years explaining why it hasn't.
And, to be clear, while Oregon has surpassed USC on the football field, the 2026 Oregon team isn't some unbeatable juggernaut coming to the Coliseum. The Ducks already lost at Oklahoma State this season. They had problems with Boise State. They're talented as hell, but they're flawed.
USC is at home. It's undefeated. It has an experienced quarterback playing well and an offense capable of scoring on anybody. If this is the USC team we've been told is coming, this is the kind of game it wins. If it doesn't, what can we reasonably expect from the rest of the season?
Because things don't get easier from here. Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana are still on the schedule. Lose Saturday and USC isn't eliminated from anything, but suddenly the margin for error gets awfully thin.
More importantly, the same questions come rushing back.
Can USC beat the best teams on its schedule? Can it hold up defensively? Has the program actually turned the corner, or are we going to spend another offseason being told about how great everything looks around the corner?
Riley has spent the last few years telling us USC is getting closer. I'd like to believe him, but the problem is USC has been getting closer for too long. Eventually, you have to stop measuring the distance you are away from something. You have to get there.
