Calm, confident and loaded: Why Lincoln Riley believes USC has window to win big in 2026 season

RANCHO PALOS VERDES, Calif. -- Lincoln Riley leaned back in a boardroom chair at the Terranea Resort along the coastal bluffs in Southern California, the Pacific Ocean stretched out in front of him, relaxed and reflective four months before his fifth season as USC's head coach. He had just spent most of the day holed up in a cold meeting room, grinding through the Big Ten's annual spring meetings alongside athletic directors and coaches as they discussed and debated the big-picture moves and the mundane changes, from playoff expansion to new punting rules.

As he reflected on his USC program, he was disarmingly confident, seemingly more at peace than in any of the previous nine offseasons as a head coach in big-time college football. Riley looked more like a man at ease, fully aware of his surroundings and what is on the horizon, than a restless 42-year-old coach feeling the pressure to win his first Big Ten title.

"It's May, right? But looking at it in May, there's definitely a real difference. It's tangible. It's not just hope," Riley said. "The program has taken steps, not only in talent acquisition and building the roster, but there's also teaching them to win, and the progression that comes with that. I know —  I've seen — the real steps we've taken on the field. I've seen the signs off the field."

Pieces finally in place for Riley, USC

No one can deny USC has momentum. The Trojans are riding a wave of hits, including a nine-win rebound in 2025, punctuated by signing the No. 1 high school recruiting class in the nation in December -- the first non-SEC team since 2008 to claim 247Sports' recruiting title.

Riley believes USC is primed for an explosion after a 35-18 start in his first four seasons leading the Trojans. They return 15 starters, including nine on offense, and the trigger man behind last season's resurgence, quarterback Jayden Maiava, is back after throwing for a career-high 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns.

"We were close enough last year to taste it," Riley said. "I mean, literally snaps away from being right in it. I know we have absolutely taken steps. Honestly, now, it's just time to go do it. It's time. The program's ready for it. I caught some flak from saying at the end of the year that I thought we had opened up a window, but it's true. It's how I feel."

Coaches at blue-blood programs like USC don't garner much grace -- even those who can readily admit their faults and promise to never repeat their misfires. But Riley does have "credibility," as he terms it, after winning big previously at Oklahoma (55-10 overall, four Big 12 titles and three playoff appearances in five seasons) and again during his 11-win debut at USC in 2022.

"I'm a lot better coach than at any point during the years at Oklahoma," he said. "I've definitely learned and grown a lot. There are a lot of things I've learned now that I wish I had known back then."

Riley's path to self-realization -- and some regret -- was shaped by his second year at USC. The Trojans seemed primed for a run to the College Football Playoff following an 11-win year behind superstar quarterback Caleb Williams, but that fall instead served as a reality check. 

The lesson that changed everything

USC turned away from homegrown talent and instead focused on the transfer portal, where Riley believed a few upgrades could transform USC from contender to champion overnight. 

"The biggest thing that probably affected our timeline was that we went all in to try to really push in Year 2," Riley said. "And we missed some key guys in that portal. If you miss, not only does it affect you that year, then that's also a group of high school kids that you didn't take. You aren't developing."

It all seems so clear now, three years later.

"If I had to do it over, in hindsight, which we know is not reality, I would have dove into the high school (recruiting) more. You know, I would have shifted more of the focus to the high school stuff in the second year."

USC has steadily steered the program back onto the recruiting trail rather than eyeing the quick-fix gambles in the transfer portal. The project was re-fueled in January 2025 with the hiring of Wunderkind general manager Chad Bowden, the 30-year-old who helped construct a national-title-contending roster alongside coach Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame. 

Building USC the right way

Together, Riley and Bowden made the choice to focus on high school recruiting, particularly in California, and develop depth, foster organic relationships on campus that lead to retention, and a portal plan that emphasizes complementary additions rather than all-in quick fixes. It's a three-year blueprint Bowden designed, with a foundation built on restoring pipelines to local high schools and building depth methodically year by year, while never deviating from the plan and succumbing to the siren calls of a short-term fix in the portal.

"We knew exactly what we needed to do," Bowden said. "We created a financial model right when I got here."

USC opted to only recruit nationally if an elite prospect projected as a first- or second-round pick in the NFL Draft. 

The proof came in December 2025. USC signed 35 recruits, including 19 from California. Eight came from the Trinity League alone, an Orange County power conference that had produced Trojan stars like receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, and cornerback Adoree Jackson. In the previous three full recruiting cycles under Riley, USC had combined to land fewer than eight Trinity League commits. 

It hasn't taken long to feel their impact. Blue chips like five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe, edge rusher Luke Wafle and tight end Mark Bowman worked their way into the two-deep in the spring.

Industry sources told CBS Sports the 2026 high school class cost nearly $9 million in NIL commitments, front-loaded to lock in talent. 

But the real indicator of what's different -- what separates this from past attempts -- is that the program is keeping what it builds.

"The biggest win of the offseason is these kids aren't leaving," Bowden said.

Riley also brought in Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator. The former TCU head coach, a College Football Hall of Fame inductee who led the nation in total defense five times, finally agreed to join USC after Riley's two-year recruiting pitch finally paid off on the golf course at Pebble Beach. 

In the 2010s, they were the Big 12 kings of offense and defense. Today, they're working alongside each other rather than gunning for each other on game days. Who would have thunk it? Who could have dreamt it?

"His fire still burns out. I mean, hot, hot," Riley said. "I don't know if he's left the office since he got to LA. He works like a GA who makes 10 grand a year. He's got a lot of pride in who he is and his ability to impact organizations.

"For all the things that he's done in his career, he's done just about everything -- there's only very, very few things that he hasn't done. This gives him and all of us that opportunity."

Times change, coaches change. In college football, four years can seem like a decade. Riley's Oklahoma days are gone but not forgotten -- four Big 12 titles, two Heisman Trophy winners and three CFP appearances.

When he bolted Oklahoma for USC seemingly overnight, shocking the sport and jilting the Sooners, star quarterback Caleb Williams followed him to LA, drawing ire from fans and media. 

Such a move seemed sacrilegious four years ago.

Now? Nobody blinks.

"When Caleb made the choice to come to SC, we got destroyed over that. Now, 30 guys from Iowa State go to Penn State, nobody gives a shit. However many guys from James Madison to Indiana, nobody cares," Riley said. "It's interesting how much of that has changed."

Window open for the Trojans

Again, here is Riley, open and honest, sounding like a coach no longer managing expectations and instead embracing what he believes is his best team yet at USC.

The man who helped build it has seen what it takes to be an elite program, too. He helped build Notre Dame into a contender. He was at Cincinnati when the Bearcats crashed the playoff when it was only a four-team field.

"This team right here that I was able to watch this spring, they're just as good as any team I've been a part of," Bowden said. "And I would say the ceiling's higher than any team I've been around."

In six weeks, USC opens its new $200 million Bloom Football Performance Center, a 160,000-square-foot facility that he believes will be the best in college football.

The window, as Riley said, is open for USC to step through.

"Trust me, I'm not the only one that sees this," he said. "Especially with the staff and people we have around us, it's a big reason for my confidence."