Line movement for College Football Playoff National Championship: Indiana vs. Miami

College football's national champion will be crowned on Monday night when the undefeated and No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers and the surging Miami Hurricanes collide in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

The Hoosiers (15-0) entered the season having lost more games than any program in college football history. But behind the magic of head coach Curt Cignetti and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Indiana is 60 minutes away from completing arguably the most unlikely turnaround in sports history.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes (13-2) were longshots just to get into the 12-team CFP field. But after getting the nod for the final spot over Notre Dame, Miami has knocked off Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss to reach the title game, which will be played in its home stadium. The Hurricanes will be looking for their sixth national championship but first since the 2001 season.

The Hoosiers opened as 7.5-point favorites, but early wagering on Indiana has moved the line to -8.5. It even reached -9 at one point.

Bet the College Football Playoff National Championship at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets. Click here to sign up:

So what should you make the line movement? Is it an overreaction or market correction?

Bet College Football Playoff National Championship at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets. Click here:

CFP National Championship: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami (7:30 p.m. ET Monday)

Open: Indiana -7.5
Current: Indiana -8.5

For transparency: I picked the Hoosiers to cover when the spread opened at -7.5. My thinking is this: Indiana is not a team that beats itself -- the Hoosiers lead the country in turnover margin (1.40 per game) and rank second in penalty yards per game (26.9). Meanwhile, the Hurricanes can sometimes be their own worst enemy. They average 57.1 penalty yards per game (84th in the nation) and are coming off a 10-penalty game in the CFP semifinal win over Ole Miss. And that doesn't include drops, turnovers and game management issues that we've seen with coach Mario Cristobal's squad. Miami needs to play a clean game against a disciplined Indiana team, and I don't know if the Hurricanes are capable of that in the biggest game of their lives.

But while I think the Hoosiers will cover, I recognize that the line movement is a bit of an overreaction to recent results. Indiana has blown out both of its CFP opponents -- Alabama (38-3) and Oregon (56-22) -- while Miami is coming off a narrow victory over the Rebels (31-27) to get to the title game. The lookahead line for this matchup was -5.5. Public perception can be strong and certainly has played a part in the early line movement.

As kickoff for the championship game nears, there is reason to think that the line will return to -8 or even lower. As of Friday afternoon, the total has come down from 48.5. Normally when money comes in on the Under, the underdog takes money as well, especially when the 'dog is a defense-first team like the Hurricanes. The fact that the point spread has actually risen makes me think we're in store for a drop eventually.

So Miami backers would be wise to move sooner rather than later; barring an injury the line is unlikely to get to -9 again. But Hoosiers backers can wait for the spread to get back to a more favorable number.