Line movements for College Football Playoff, including Tulane at Ole Miss

The College Football Playoff is officially in full swing after kicking off with an Alabama comeback win over Oklahoma Friday night after the Tide fell behind 17-0 early before rallying to a 34-24 win, earning them a date with Indiana in the Rose Bowl. 

The rest of the first round continues Saturday, including a rematch of a game we saw a few months ago. Ole Miss hosts Tulane, which won the AAC to punch its ticket to the playoff, and back in September, the Rebels dominated en route to a 45-10 win. Things have changed mightily since then, however, as the Green Wave won all but one game since then while the Rebels now have a new head coach. Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss for LSU ahead of the Rebels' CFP run, and the university promoted defensive coordinator Pete Golding to the full-time head coach position. And for good measure, Tulane is also in the midst of a coaching change with Jon Sumrall going to Florida once the Green Wave's season is over. 

The Rebels opened as 16-point favorites at top sportsbooks, but they're now favored by 17.5.

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So what should you make of that line movement? Is it a market correction or an overreaction? Here's a look at the point spread and line movement for Saturday's CFP games. All times Eastern.

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No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. Saturday)

Open: Ole Miss -16
Last week: Ole Miss -17.5
Current: Ole Miss -17.5

Back on Sept. 20, the Rebels took care of the Green Wave with a 35-point win in Oxford, and the game wasn't even as close as that score may suggest. Ole Miss had 548 yards of offense to Tulane's 282, and the Rebels had a 45-3 lead before giving up a late score with just over three minutes left in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss winning by 35 is a big reason why early money came in on the Rebels despite the team having a new head coach for this postseason run after Kiffin's departure. Obviously, bettors don't believe Kiffin is worth 19 points on the point spread. 

No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (7:30 p.m. Saturday)

Open: Oregon -20
Last week: Oregon -21.5
Current: Oregon -20.5

This is the kind of game in which the Ducks usually roll. Since Dan Lanning took over as coach in 2022, Oregon is 10-0 against non-major conference teams, with an average margin of victory of 36.3 points per game. However, this game may be a little different. First, James Madison is not your run-of-the-mill Group of Five team. The Dukes can run the ball (245.8 rushing yards per game, sixth in the country) and stop the run (76.2 rushing yards allowed per game, second in the nation). Also, even if this game gets out of hand, will the Ducks want to keep running their starters out there knowing they have a quarterfinal matchup against Texas Tech ahead? Oregon deserves to be a big favorite against a team that's losing coach Bob Chesney to UCLA after the season, but a backdoor cover is a possibility.