LSU vs. Houston prediction, picks, odds, spread: Tigers, Cougars finish 2025 season with Texas Bowl
LSU and Houston meet for just the fourth time as they cap the season on Saturday in the Texas Bowl
By
David Cobb
•
3 min read
Saturday's Texas Bowl showdown between LSU and Houston will be a battle between a program in transition and a program on the rise. The Tigers (7-5) will be playing their final game under interim coach Frank Wilson to conclude a disappointing 2025 campaign marked by the firing of Brian Kelly and subsequent hiring of Lane Kiffin.
Though Kiffin has been busy assembling his 2026 staff and laying the groundwork for his first roster, he won't be wearing a headset as the 2025 Tigers seek a fourth straight bowl victory. LSU will have its hands full with Houston (9-3), which is seeking to cap off a breakthrough second season for coach Willie Fritz.
The Cougars have already raised their win total by five from last season, and Fritz said Monday that "we've got everybody playing in the bowl game."
It's a different story for LSU, which will be down a number of key veterans due to a combination of injuries and opt-outs. The Tigers are expected to be without several star defenders, including safety AJ Haulcy, cornerback Mansoor Delane, linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., defensive end Jack Pyburn and linebacker West Weeks. Fellow linebacker Whit Weeks will also be out due to injury.
Each were key cogs in a formidable defense. With Blake Baker sticking around to be the Tigers' defensive coordinator under Kiffin, LSU will get a look at some younger defensive players who could factor into the program's future.
LSU vs. Houston: Need to know
Weigman's familiarity: LSU is a familiar foe for Houston quarterback Conner Weigman, who went 2-0 against the Tigers while playing for Texas A&M from 2022-24. He completed 12 of 18 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-23 upset win over the No. 6 Tigers to end the 2022 season. Though the Tigers went on to play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game the following week, the dud performance against a struggling A&M team put a damper on the ending to Brian Kelly's first season as LSU's coach. Weigman also started at quarterback for A&M in a win over LSU last season before transferring to Houston at season's end.
Michael Van Buren's audition: LSU quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. stepped into the starting role for the Tigers' 10th game of the season and went 2-1 with wins over Arkansas and Western Kentucky and a loss at Oklahoma. The Mississippi State transfer brings an element of mobility to LSU's attack that veteran Garrett Nussmeier lacked as the Tigers struggled with pass protection in 2025. But his ceiling as a passer remains up for debate. As Lane Kiffin takes over as LSU's head coach, Van Buren's future is hanging in the balance. This will be a key audition opportunity for the sophomore, who could raise his value on the quarterback market with a strong performance.
Rare meeting: These schools are separated by less than 300 miles along the Gulf of Mexico, but this will be their first meeting in 25 years. LSU leads the all-time series 2-1, with all three previous meetings coming between 1996 and 2000. Houston's lone victory came in 1999, when a Cougars team that finished 7-4 took down LSU 20-7 in Gerry DiNardo's final game as the Tigers coach.
Where to watch LSU vs. Houston live
Date: Saturday, December 27 | Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium -- Houston, Texas
TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
LSU vs. Houston: prediction, picks
LSU is a team in transition that is grappling with a significant wave of defensive opt-outs as it plays under interim coach Frank Wilson for the last time. By comparison, Houston is entering the Texas Bowl with its roster mostly in tact. As motivation goes, the edge should lie with the Cougars, who are seeking a 10th victory and a memorable cap to a strong second season for coach Willie Fritz. LSU still has some talent, but this is a shell of the team that spent the first half of the season ranked. Pick: Houston -3
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