Nobody was better positioned to take advantage of a new-look Big 12 than Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys returned the fourth-most production in the country coming off a season in which they surprised many in reaching the Big 12 championship game. They were old. Their starting offensive line had an average age of 24! They had a Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Ollie Gordon -- who was the highest-ranked player in this summer's College Football 25 -- and a defense that projected to be much better in Year 2 under defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo, especially with 10 starters back.
Things started out well with wins over South Dakota State and Arkansas in spots Mike Gundy's teams had sometimes struggled in. An old an experienced team entered Big 12 play at 3-0.
Then came the baffling collapse.
Oklahoma State lost its final nine games of the 2024 season, including an embarrassing 52-0 defeat at Colorado on Friday -- the largest margin of defeat since the maverick Gundy took the sidelines of his alma mater in 2005.
What the heck happened and what does this mean for the future of the 57-year-old Gundy? Let's dive in:
What went wrong
Well, the defense couldn't stop anybody. It's not sordid or salacious but it's where we have to start.
Maybe returning production doesn't always mean good production? At least that's my takeaway from Oklahoma State's struggles. The Cowboys finished the 2023 season ranked 123rd nationally in yards allowed per play. Then almost all those starters came back with only two reinforcements (CB Kobe Hylton and edge Obi Ezeigbo) from the transfer portal.
Sometimes more experience helps a unit get better. Not so much this time.
Oklahoma State came into this week ranked 131st nationally in yards allowed per play, a slotting that might get worse after allowing 6.3 yards per play to the Buffaloes.
Injuries played a part in that defensive collapse. The unit's best player, Collin Oliver, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. But mostly, the Cowboys struggled in the exact same areas they did last year: Nardo's unit couldn't stop the run with any consistency and busted time and again in the passing game.
The offensive stats aren't as bad on paper given Oklahoma State is a slightly better-than-average scoring offense. But it's still a horrendous result given the personnel.
It felt like Oklahoma State forgot Gordon, the preseason All-American running back, existed at times. He got more than 15 carries in --- wait for this one -- only three of nine Big 12 games. Part of that is situational as the Cowboys often fell behind early, but come on , it's also inexcusable. Speaking of inexcusable: The dreadful play of Oklahoma State's offensive line, one of the most experienced in the country and even considered as the best unit in the country per 247Sports' Blake Brockermeyer, who spent 10-plus years as an NFL offensive lineman and would know a thing or two about trench warfare. Oklahoma State ranked No. 98 nationally in rushing yards before contact. They pass-blocked well, for what it's worth, and was one of the best units in that metric. But a perceived team strength was nevertheless a weakness, and that's a problem for offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn.
The team's starting QB, super senior Alan Bowman, struggled with turnovers and continued to struggle to throw the ball in the deeper areas of the field; an area of concern for the Cowboys the year prior with Bowman at the helm.
Oklahoma State opted not to dive into the portal and grab a starting-caliber QB despite seeing Bowman's limitations in 2023. It cost the Cowboys any chance at contention.
What happens next?
There were several behind-the-scenes rumors in recent weeks that Gundy might choose to retire. There were even those on his staff who wondered if Gundy might step away, per sources, but Gundy shut that down last week, saying "there ain't no way" he'll retire.
Could he be fired? Anyone could. But a $25 million buyout and Gundy's general cachet in Stillwater puts it on the "un" side of "likely."
What will happen, however, is an overhauling of Gundy's staff -- whether that's his decision or one charged by athletics director Chad Weiberg doesn't much matter.
Many of his assistants have been with him for years. Some, like Dunn the offensive coordinator, have been with Gundy for over a decade. But industry sources expect a significant staff overhaul. The Nardo hire at defensive coordinator -- a controversial move at the time when Gundy nabbed a D-II coach from Gannon University -- has been a failure. And Dunn, who took over the job in 2020, has yet to produce a top 50 offense in terms of yards per play.
As for the players on the roster, many of the team's stars will exhaust their eligibility and graduate. Others with eligibility remaining, like Gordon, are going to explore their NFL options.
Oklahoma State under Gundy since 2012 Big 12 Realignment
| Year | W/L Record | AP Pre | AP Post | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 8-5 | Heart of Dallas Bowl-W | ||
| 2013 | 10-3 | 13 | 17 | Cotton Bowl-L |
| 2014 | 7-6 | Cactus Bowl-W | ||
| 2015 | 10-3 | 20 | Sugar Bowl-L | |
| 2016 | 10-3 | 21 | 11 | Alamo Bowl-W |
| 2017 | 10-3 | 10 | 14 | Camping World Bowl-W |
| 2018 | 7-6 | Liberty Bowl-W | ||
| 2019 | 8-5 | Texas Bowl-L | ||
| 2020 | 8-3 | 15 | 20 | Cheez-It Bowl-W |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 7 | Fiesta Bowl-W | |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 12 | Guaranteed Rate Bowl-L | |
| 2023 | 10-4 | 16 | Texas Bowl-W | |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 17 |
Thus, the Cowboys will need to be heavy transfer portal shoppers. They have to be after three straight recruiting classes (2023-25) that rank in the 50s. Gundy has always taken a sly pride in building a winning program and developing All-Americans without elite recruiting classes, but eventually the luck runs out. And it has.
Priority No. 1 among many will be to find a quarterback. The Cowboys will be in that market in the portal as it doesn't look like the younger options like Garrett Rangel are the program's future; true freshman Maealiuaki Smith had his moments against Texas Tech two weeks ago but showed his age with a 11-for-29, 70-yard, two-INT performance in Boulder. Gundy needs a proven winner in 2025.
Beyond quarterback, the Cowboys will add at nearly every position, especially offensive line, where the oldest unit in the sport will quickly become one of the least experienced due to graduation.
It's a daunting overhaul for the sometimes-stubborn 57-year-old head coach, who is coming off his first losing season since 2005. Gundy is the epitome of consistency in the Big 12 over the last 20 years. Infrequent staff changes and high school-first recruiting and development have been Gundy's blueprint. But now he's in the uncomfortable position of, well, getting uncomfortable.
Drastic turnarounds are possible in the transfer portal era. They happen every year. But is Gundy willing to change everything that's defined him and his program the last two decades to fix what's broken? We're about to find out.