Navy vs. Cincinnati prediction, odds, time: 2026 Liberty Bowl picks by proven model

The Navy Midshipmen will take on the Cincinnati Bearcats in the 2026 Liberty Bowl on Friday afternoon. Navy is coming off a 17-16 win over Army on Dec. 13, while Cincinnati dropped a 45-23 decision at TCU on Nov. 29. The Midshipmen (10-2), who finished in a three-way tie for the American Conference regular-season championship, have won three in a row. The Bearcats (7-5), who finished tied for seventh in the Big 12 Conference, have lost four games straight. Starting Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby and most of the Bearcats' secondary are among the players who have entered the transfer portal and will not play.

Kickoff from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., is at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Midshipmen are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Navy vs. Cincinnati odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 57.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Cincinnati vs. Navy picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Navy vs. Cincinnati. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Cincinnati vs. Navy:

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How to make Navy vs. Cincinnati picks

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model is going Under (57.5) on the total. The Under has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings between the Midshipmen and Bearcats. The Under has also hit in each of the last two Navy games, and in three of the last five Cincinnati games. 

The model has Navy quarterback Blake Horvath passing for more than 150 yards, rushing for 100 yards and scoring two touchdowns, while Cincinnati running backs Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor will combine for more than 100 yards and a score. The teams are projected to combine for 53 points as the Under clears in almost 60% of simulations. 

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can see the model's pick at SportsLine.  

So who wins Cincinnati vs. Navy, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Navy vs. Cincinnati spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.