When No. 9 seed Tennessee (10-2) meets No. 8 seed Ohio State (10-2) on Saturday night in the Shoe, it will look more like an old-school Big Ten game than you may expect given the skill on the field for Ohio State's offense and the reputation Tennessee's offense has under Josh Heupel, too. It will be cold and defenses should win the day (it is the strength for both the Buckeyes and the Volunteers).
There are critical matchups and advantages each team will be looking to take advantage of. making this matchup the best of the first round, for my money at least.
Tennessee's Defensive Strengths
Third-Down Defense
Tennessee's defense has been a standout unit on third downs, allowing opponents to convert just 29.3% of attempts, ranking fifth nationally. This is a sharp contrast to Ohio State's offense, which converts 42.7% of third downs, placing them No. 45. Tennessee's ability to stall drives on critical downs could be a decisive factor. Chalk this up as a big advantage for the Vols.
| Metric | TENN Defense | OSU Offense |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Down Pct | 29.3% (5th) | 42.7% (45th) |
Rush Defense
The Volunteers have also excelled at stopping the run, allowing just 99.6 yards per game, ranking 8th in the FBS. Ohio State's rushing offense, averaging 169.2 yards per game (59th), faces a tough challenge in breaking through Tennessee's front line. The Buckeyes have two household names at running back in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, but their offensive line, which lost two starters to season-ending injuries, puts them at a disadvantage here.
| Metric | TENN Defense | OSU Offense |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards/Game | 99.6 (8th) | 169.2 (59th) |
Dylan Sampson vs. Ohio State's Stacked Box
Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson thrives against heavy defensive fronts, leading the nation with eight rushing touchdowns against eight defenders in the box (48 total carries, three yards per rush vs. stacked box).
An interesting matchup will be how many defenders Ohio State puts in the box to try and slow down Sampson. Ohio State has the top rush defense in FBS and has yet to allow a rushing score when having eight defenders in the box.
Ohio State's Defensive Excellence
Red Zone Defense
Ohio State's defense leads the nation in red-zone touchdown prevention, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on just 34.5% of trips. Tennessee's offense, which ranks 67th in red-zone touchdown percentage (61.7%), will need to be efficient to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
| Metric | TENN Offense | OSU Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Red Zone TD % | 61.7% (67th) | 34.5% (1st) |
Pass Defense at Home
The Buckeyes have been nearly impenetrable against the pass at home, allowing just 105.0 passing yards per game, the best mark in the FBS. Tennessee's passing attack, averaging 197.4 yards per game in road/neutral environments (92nd), faces a steep uphill battle.
| Metric | TENN Offense away | OSU Defense at home |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards/Game | 197.4 (92nd) | 105.0 (1st) |
Will Howard's Efficiency vs. Tennessee's Defense
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has been lethal against the blitz, leading the nation in completion percentage (77.1%) and passing efficiency (222.0). Tennessee, which blitzes 33.3% of the time (26th), will need to adjust to avoid giving Howard favorable matchups. Additionally, Howard excels against man coverage, an area Tennessee rarely employs, ranking 77th in man coverage usage (24.7%).
| Metric | Will Howard | TENN Defense |
|---|---|---|
| Completion % (vs Blitz) | 77.1% (1st) | --- |
| Pass Efficiency (vs Blitz) | 222.0 (1st) | --- |
| Completion % (vs Man Coverage) | 74.2% (1st) | 24.7% Usage (77th) |
All eight of Howard's interceptions this season have come against zone coverage.
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